Climate Change Impacts on Maximum Aviation Payloads of Chinese Airports
2025
Haijun Song | Tinglong Zhang | Jian Zou | Xianbiao Kang
This research investigates climate change impacts on the maximum aviation payload capacity across China&rsquo:s airport network. Through analysis of projections from 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario, we quantify the temperature and the pressure effects on maximum take-off weight (MTOW) at 184 Chinese airports. The results reveal that all airports experience MTOW reductions by 2081&ndash:2100, with high-plateau airports (>:2438 m) facing more moderate decreases (&minus:1.25%) than plain airports (<:1500 m) (&minus:1.72%). This counterintuitive pattern stems from elevation-dependent pressure compensation: high-altitude regions benefit from significant pressure increases (4.6 hPa) that partially offset temperature-induced density reductions, while lowland areas receive minimal pressure compensation (0.9 hPa). For commercial aircraft, these changes translate to 1.3&ndash:2.9 tons of payload reduction for narrow-body aircraft at plain airports. Our findings demonstrate how topography modulates climate impacts on aviation operations, highlighting the need for regionally tailored adaptation strategies with a focus on economically vital lowland hubs.
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