Heavy Rainfall Probabilistic Model for Zielona Góra in Poland
2025
Marcin Wdowikowski | Monika Nowakowska | Maciej Bełcik | Grzegorz Galiniak
The research focuses on probabilistic modeling of maximum rainfall in Zielona Gó:ra, Poland, to improve urban drainage system design. The study utilizes archived pluviographic data from 1951 to 2020, collected at the IMWM-NRI meteorological station. These data include 10 min rainfall records and aggregated hourly and daily totals. The study employs various statistical distributions, including Fré:chet, gamma, generalized exponential (GED), Gumbel, log-normal, and Weibull, to model rainfall intensity&ndash:duration&ndash:frequency (IDF) relationships. After testing the goodness of fit using the Anderson&ndash:Darling test, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and relative residual mean square Error (rRMSE), the GED distribution was found to best describe rainfall patterns. A key outcome is the development of a new rainfall model based on the GED distribution, allowing for the estimation of precipitation amounts for different durations and exceedance probabilities. However, the study highlights limitations, such as the need for more accurate local models and a standardized rainfall atlas for Poland.
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