Groundwater Management Modeling in the Güzelyurt Region (Northern Cyprus): A Group Model Building Approach
2025
Farhad Bolouri | Hüseyin Gökçekuş | Vahid Nourani | Youssef Kassem
Groundwater plays an important role in areas facing water scarcity, which can cause many problems if poorly managed. In Northern Cyprus, in the Gü:zelyurt region, where agriculture is thriving, excessive and inappropriate groundwater use has caused a sharp decrease in water levels and electrical conductivity in many coastal areas. This study explores this problem using system dynamics tools designed to analyze feedback loops and causal links. The qualitative system dynamics approach is employed to investigate complex systems by focusing on structural and behavioral patterns through qualitative elements such as feedback loops, causal relationships, and system archetypes, rather than relying solely on numerical data. For this purpose, group model building is used, for which a basic model is built using library studies, and then the model is developed and improved through numerous interviews and meetings held with policymakers, farmers, soil and water managers, university professors, and representatives from the local community. The study examines water management practices, including transferring water from Turkey to Northern Cyprus and allocating a portion for agricultural use in Gü:zelyurt. It also explores agricultural strategies and the employment of advanced irrigation methods. In the tourism and urban consumption sectors, raising public awareness and educating citizens about water scarcity linked to climate change are highlighted as essential measures in promoting sustainable water usage.
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