Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought Variation from 2001 to 2023 in the China–Mongolia–Russia Transboundary Heilongjiang River Basin Based on ITVDI

Drought impacts agricultural production and regional sustainable development. Accordingly, timely and accurate drought monitoring is essential for ensuring food security in rain-fed agricultural regions. Alternating drought and flood events frequently occur in the Heilongjiang River Basin, the largest grain-producing area in Far East Asia. However, spatiotemporal variability in drought is not well understood, in part owing to the limitations of the traditional Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI). In this study, an Improved Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (ITVDI) was developed by incorporating Digital Elevation Model data to correct land surface temperatures and introducing a constraint line method to replace the traditional linear regression for fitting dry&ndash:wet boundaries. Based on MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) normalized vegetation index and land surface temperature products, the Heilongjiang River Basin, a cross-border basin between China, Mongolia, and Russia, exhibited pronounced spatiotemporal variability in drought conditions of the growing season from 2001 to 2023. Drought severity demonstrated clear geographical zonation, with a higher intensity in the western region and lower intensity in the eastern region. The Mongolian Plateau and grasslands were identified as drought hotspots. The Far East Asia forest belt was relatively humid, with an overall lower drought risk. The central region exhibited variation in drought characteristics. From the perspective of cross-national differences, the drought severity distribution in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia exhibits marked spatial heterogeneity. In Mongolia, regional drought levels exhibited a notable trend toward homogenization, with a higher proportion of extreme drought than in other areas. The overall drought risk in the Russian part of the basin was relatively low. A trend analysis indicated a general pattern of drought alleviation in western regions and intensification in eastern areas. Most regions showed relatively stable patterns, with few areas exhibiting significant changes, mainly surrounding cities such as Qiqihar, Daqing, Harbin, Changchun, and Amur Oblast. Regions with aggravation accounted for 52.29% of the total study area, while regions showing slight alleviation account for 35.58%. This study provides a scientific basis and data infrastructure for drought monitoring in transboundary watersheds and for ensuring agricultural production security.