Suitability analysis of alternative agroforestry systems in Beira Baixa (Portugal) in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation

The proliferation of single-species tree plantations, predominantly consisting of pine or eucalyptus trees, poses a significant challenge in Portugal. These monoculture plantations, driven by the pulp and paper industry, have expanded extensively across the country. Unlike mixed forests or agroforestry systems, monoculture plantations are more prone to fire spread and lack the benefits of water retention and erosion control. A diverse landscape with various land uses and vegetation types is a crucial natural barrier against large-scale forest fires. This study, conducted with rigorous scientific methods, aims to assess the viability of cultivating cork oak (Quercus suber L.), holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia Lam.), and strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) in agroforestry mode in the Beira Baixa region. Biophysical criteria related to soil and climate were analyzed using a Geographic Information System (GIS) for present and future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2070). The suitability analysis employed the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), involving hierarchical decision-making levels and pairwise comparison of criteria to determine weights. The suitability for the strawberry tree will reduce significantly in both RCP scenarios, with the highest decrease observed in the worst-case scenario. The area with high potential for holm oak will expand in both scenarios, and cork oak will be relatively stable for RCP 4.5 and will be highly reduced for RCP 8.5. The study confirms AHP's efficacy in evaluating tree species suitability and underscores the importance of resilient agroforestry systems in adapting to climate change.

This work is supported with Portuguese national funds by FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., within the CERNAS. DOI: 10.54499/UIDP/00681/2020.

info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion