Climatically suitable areas for Hylobius abietis and Hylobius pales: a global and regional analysis considering economic risks for pine production.

BACKGROUND: The weevils Hylobius abietis and Hylobius pales are major pests of pine species within their native ranges. Their potential spread to Pinus-producing regions outside these areas could result in substantial economic and ecological losses, underscoring the need for studies that identify regions at greater risk of invasion. RESULTS: Climate suitability maps, generated using the MaxEnt machine learning algorithm, identified climatically suitable areas for H. abietis and H. pales in multiple regions beyond their native ranges. These areas include several Pinus-producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere (e.g., Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa), as well as locations near ports, airports, or major international trade hubs. In Brazil, 68.1% of Pinus-producing areas fall within the suitable range for H. abietis, while 91.5% of cultivated Pinus areas are suitable range for H. pales. Among the 588 Pinus-producing municipalities, 48 depend on this economic activity to a moderate or high degree. Additionally, the analysis revealed that 42.0% of these municipalities face a moderate to high economic risk in the event of an invasion by H. abietis, while 90.5% are at risk from H. pales. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the importance of incorporating region-specific data to improve invasion risk map accuracy and guide preventive actions against two major forest pests. Most Pinus-producing municipalities in Brazil face moderate to high economic risk from potential invasions by H. abietis and H. pales, emphasizing the need for proactive prevention strate- gies.

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