Urban heat in global cities and the role of nature-based solutions in mitigating future climate risks
2025
Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez | Rachael V Gallagher | Jonathan Lenoir | Victor L Barradas | Linda J Beaumont | Carlo Calfapietra | Paloma Cariñanos | Stephen J Livesley | Tamara Iungma | Gabriele Manoli | Renee M Marchin | Timon McPhearson | Christian Messier | Mark Nieuwenhuijsen | Sally A Power | Paul D Rymer | Mark G Tjoelker
Approximately eight billion people are living on Earth today with more than half (55%, ∼4.2 billion) living in cities—a proportion predicted to increase to 70% (∼6.6. billion) by 2050. As the human population grows, urban residents will face increasingly extreme temperatures under future climate change, which will affect human well-being, health, and mortality. However, nature-based solutions offer promising strategies to mitigate these impacts. Here, we analyst future projections of the maximum temperature of the warmest month, as a proxy for extreme heat exposure across 5646 cities in 218 countries. We show that by mid-century, this climate metric is projected to increase by an average of +1.7 °C (± 0.5 °C), with the largest increases (∼4 °C) projected to occur in mid-to-high latitude cities of Europe, North America, and Australia. We highlight the urgent need to adopt nature-based solutions to mitigate projected increases in urban heat and contribute to net-zero CO _2 emissions goals.
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