PRESENT CLIMATE, GCM-BIASES AND EXPECTED CHANGES ALONG ONE ZONAL AND ONE MERIDIONAL BELT, CROSSING IN EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE

Geographical zonality and continentality are presented. The global climate models (GCM) and the ERA-40 adjusted observations are called to answer three questions: (i.) How do these peculiarities appear in the observed climate of single meridional and zonal belts around the Globe? (ii.) Can the models properly simulate the present zonal and continental order in seasonal and annual means of temperature, precipitation and sea-level pressure? (iii.) Can these features also be recognised in patterns of CO2-forced climate changes? The questions are answered by using the MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3v2 diagnostic model (Wigley, 2008). The third answer is based on the A1B emission scenario with no changes in the aerosol content. The simulated present climate patterns are compared to those from the ERA-40 reanalyses. The future time horizon is 2030-2049 compared to 1980-1999 for baseline climate. Zonality and continentality are presented in two narrow belts around the Globe. The pair of zonally oriented belts with 2.5 degree width, taken along both sides of the 47,5 N latitude, is selected to demonstrate the effects of continentality. These two neighbouring belts spread from the Pacific Ocean along North-America, the Atlantic Ocean, Europe and Asia. The other 2.5 degree wide belt starts at the North Pole, spreads along the 18.75th eastern longitude in its centre towards the South Pole, continuing along the 161.25th western longitude towards the North Pole, again. The first 180 degree long part of this belt crosses parts of Europe, Africa and Antarctica, whereas the rest spreads along the Pacific Ocean, is slightly disturbed in its purely oceanic character by Alaska. This belt is chosen to demonstrate zonality. The results indicate that various aspects of zonaliy and continentality occur in the simulation biases and projected changes, as well.