A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Antarctic ice sheet
2025
Owen Seiner | Anna Hugney | Hélène Seroussi | Joseph A MacGregor
The basal thermal state of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS)—whether the base is frozen or thawed—fundamentally underpins its flow and is an important factor in understanding its large-scale response to external forcings. Here, we present a first synthesis of the AIS basal thermal state combining two indirect and independent methods: (1) a compilation of nine three-dimensional thermomechanical simulations that calculate AIS basal temperature as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and (2) an estimate of the basal slip ratio, defined as the ratio of observed surface speed to deformational speed. This synthesis is evaluated against direct observations from deep boreholes and predicted flowpaths for water originating from subglacial lakes detected by altimetry and radar sounding. The synthesis predicts a thawed bed across most of West Antarctica and localized regions in East Antarctica. Most of the Antarctic Peninsula, the Transantarctic Mountains and several regions of East Antarctica are likely frozen at the bed. Overall, our synthesis suggests 46% of the AIS bed is likely thawed, 18% likely frozen and the remaining 36% is uncertain. Additional observations, particularly at the continental scale, are required to improve our understanding of Antarctica’s basal thermal state.
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