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AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF THE PRESENT AND FUTURE EFFECT OF INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EGYPT
2018
Rihan M.K. | Sally Bawady
Inflation is meant the overall and continuing rise in prices by the impact of internal or external variables, produced by excess demand about supply capacity. Problem of the study: The Egyptian economy has a decline in overall economic indicators, most importantly is the overall growth rate, compared with a rise in inflation, poverty, unemployment, the low production and the continuing deficit in the trade balance, and in general budget, which are negative indicators for the Egyptian economy. Therefore, the study is trying to explain and study the problem of inflation, its direct and indirect effects on overall growth rates in the Egyptian economy. Research Objectives: Identify the reality of growth rate in the Egyptian economy; identify what are inflation types and methods of measurement, measuring interaction relationships between both of inflation rates and growth rates in the Egyptian economy, determine factors afficting of both inflation and growth rates in Egypt, to work on indirect effect in these phenomena by afficting on those factors. Results and recommendations 1-To study the effect of the most important variables of affected GDP at current and real prices in Egypt during the period (2003-2014): It turns out that study variables give effects on growth rate in real GDP at real prices consistent with economic logic, on the contrary effects of the growth rate of GDP at current prices. 2- Study interrelationships between the local annual growth rate at real and current prices and the annual inflation rate in Egypt during the period (2003-2014): It was concluded that data will be relied on real growth rate of GDP in its relations with inflation, where it is more logical from the economic point of view than the results of the GDP growth rate of GDP at current prices. 3- The relation between the inflation rate and growth rate GDP in real terms is negatively slope. 4- The results of the current economic model show that: The most important factors affecting in inflation rate and real growth rate in GDP are: First: Annual inflation rate in consumer prices (X2), it has a negative significant statistically effect for both of annual growth rate of GDP at real prices% (X6), net cash reserve (X8), and the balance of current transactions and transfers (X13). And positive significant statistically effect for both of exchange rate of the dollar declared by the Central Bank (X10), and and the total surplus (deficit) (X21). Second: Annual growth rate of GDP at real prices% (X6), it has a negative effect from, annual inflation rate in consumer prices (X2), and the exchange rate of the dollar announced by the Central Bank (X10), while the effect was statistically significant positive for both of, net cash reserve (X8), and the total surplus (deficit) (X21). 5- Best method to forcast the main variables under study of inflation rate and the real growth rate of GDP is the use of the simutianeous equation model it takes into consideration all external variables affecting the internal variables under study. It was reached by forcasting both of the Inflation rates and real GDP growth rates, that the policies followed by floating exchange rate, which requires an impact on all variables to the hoped results of the floating of the Egyptian pound. Therefore research recommends: to re-enter the Central Bank for determining the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound against other currencies, not directly to the currency exchange rate, but by indirect intervention through supply and demand control of the currency in Egyptian market against other currencies, by intervening in the market by selling and buying direct from banks, in addition to moving external variables affecting both inflation and real growth rates in Egypt to able to reach the resalts of simulitanuos equation model which takes into account all external variables related to the study variables.
Show more [+] Less [-]EFFECT OF BARLEY FLOUR ON WHEAT BREAD QUALITY
2018
H. El-Taib | I. Rizk | E. Yousif | Amal Hassan
This study was carried out to investigate the possibility of utilization of barley flour in production of pan bread. wheat flour of (72% extract) was replaced by 10, 15 and 20% barley flour. The effect of such replacements on physical and chemical characteristics of produced pan bread were studied. The results indicated that barley flour had a higher contents of chemical composition than that in wheat flour except carbohydrate content was the highest in wheat flour (85.53%) than in barley flour (76.67%),whereas, protein, ash, dietary fiber, β-glucan and antioxidant were higher content in barley flour (13.63, 2.44, 19.00, 8.65, 97.34 respectively) as compared with its content in wheat flour (12.26, 0.49, 4.88, 0.34, 55.33 respctively),while, wet gluten and falling number were reduced by added barley in composite flour. The rheological properties of the five dough mixes were studied using farinograph and extensograph. The water absorption and dough weakening increased as the percentage of barley flour increased, while were decreased the extensibility and maximum resistance to extension . The results of sensory characteristies of prepared bread (containes10% barley flour) was not significants different from control for crust color, grain and texture. The results revealed that it was possible to use barley flour at level of 10, 15% to produce bread that satisfied baker's and consumer's sensory expectation. This levels may be to increased the nutritional value from dietary fibers, β-glucan, minerals, vitamins and antioxidants.
Show more [+] Less [-]INFLUENCE OF IN-OVO INJECTION OF SELENIUM NANOPARTICLES AND SELENOMETHIONINE ON GROWTH PERFORMANCE AND PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF BROILER CHICKS
2018
M. Abd El-Fatah | I. El-Wardany | E. Abdallah | Marwa Sh.
This study was conducted to investigate the effect of in ovo injection of broiler eggs with different levels and forms of selenium on growth performance and some blood parameters of post hatched chicks. A total of 300 fertilized eggs obtained from a commercial Arbor Acres broiler breeder flock, were used in the present experiment. They were divided randomly into six treatment groups, 50 eggs each. The first one was kept as a control– non injected group, the second group (sham) injected with phosphate buffered saline (PBS), the 3rd and 4th groups were injected with selenium nanoparticles (SeNPs) at 10 and 20 ug/egg, while the 5th and 6th groups were injected with organic selenium (Se-Methionine) at 50 and 100 ug/egg , respectively. All eggs were incubated in a forced draught incubator at the recommended temperature, relative humidity and turning patterns .The in ovo injection procedure was done at the 16th day of incubation. The criteria of response includes: live body weight, weight gain, feed consumption, feed conversion ratio, total protein, albumin, globulin, A/G ratio, cholesterol, triglyceride, HDL and glucose. The results showed that the supplementation of Se did not significantly affect growth performance traits. Supplementation of nano-Se increased plasma concentrations of total protein, albumin and HDL, and decrease glucose, however, no significant differences in globulin, A/G ratio, cholesterol and triglyceride levels. It can be concluded that the use of 20 ug /egg of Nano-Se caused an improvement of growth performance and feed conversion ratio without negative effects on blood constituents.
Show more [+] Less [-]AN ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE EFFICIENCY OF OPERATING AGRICULTURAL MACHINES IN PRODUCTION OF WHEAT
2018
Aziza Hussein | S. Meqled | Eman Amin | M. Desouqy
Agricultural sector is considered to be one of the most important sectors in the Egyptian economy that contributes greatly in the national income. Therefore, the state pays great intention to the agricultural sector concerning all developmental aspects either vertical or horizontal. That is achieved through developing used and already existing agricultural resources which is called vertical agricultural development, or through adding new agricultural materials which is called horizontal agricultural development. In all of the abovementioned fields, agricultural machines play an important and direct role in achieving both vertical and horizontal agricultural development, as it is well- known that vertical and horizontal agricultural expand depends totally on agricultural machines in general and the developed modern machines in particular. As for vertical agricultural expand, agricultural machines play vital and effective role in increasing production, lowering production costs and the possibility of making use of the advantages and jumps of expansion through expanding in use and application of modern technical methods in agriculture as laser leveling, planting by seed drill, automatic seedling and automatic harvest. In addition to the abovementioned, there is the gab in the cereals, decrease of the net profit of farmers as well as their use of farming traditional methods that do not coop the agricultural development. Considering the importance of the technical standard as an important factor of agricultural production, the use of modern technology comes among the most important methods that may increase the production of Feddans by the optimal economic use of limited resources. The thesis aimed to introduce the best technical standards in agricultural machines applied in the farming rice, wheat and maize in order to yield the highest production with lowest costs and to gain the highest amount of net profit of Feddan. Moreover, the thesis aimed to study the production and economic indicators of the crops studied by the thesis and their development nationwide as well as comparing the effect of the technical processes on the productivity of the Feddan of the crops studied by the thesis and their effect from the economic feasibility point of view. This part of the thesis deals with the economic evaluation of using agricultural machines in order to farm to wheat in Egypt., as it was shown that the average Feddan productivity of wheat was estimated of about 3.7 ton/ Feddan as a result of using technical methods, whereas productivity by using traditional systems was about 2.8 ton/Feddan. This shows that as a result of using technological systems, Feddan productivity overcomes using the traditional systems as that increase was estimated to be about 0.9 ton/ Feddan with a percentage of about 32% from traditional systems. This increase in the average Feddan productivity for land unit reflects to new items, laser leveling, deep ploughing and adding land plaster with the relatively stability of varied production costs and the extent of technical and economic efficiency on favor of using technological systems. The thesis showed that the total proceeds of wheat farmed by using technological systems reached in average about 12440 pound/ Feddan, against 9560 pound/ Feddan for wheat farmed by using traditional systems. It was shown that the total proceeds of wheat farmed by using technological systems increase with a percentage of 30% from the same crop farmed by traditional systems. The study shows that the total varied costs of wheat for technological systems distributed on the production elements is estimated in average of about 3915 pound/ Feddan against 6390 pound/ Feddan for transitional methods with an increase of 39% when using agricultural machines. Moreover, the study pointed out that the total costs were estimated in average of about 5915 pound/ Feddan of wheat farmed by using technological systems against 8390 pound/ Feddan for traditional systems with an increase of about 29%. This illustrates the efficiency of suing technological systems. The study considered the net Feddan proceeds of wheat farmed by technological systems. It was estimated of about 6525 pound/Feddan against 1170 pound/ Feddan for traditional systems. This means that technological systems' net profit exceeds the same profits of traditional systems with an increase of about 5355 pounds. The study showed that the proceeds above the varied costs of wheat farmed by technological systems are estimated with about 8525 pound/ Feddan in average against 3170 pound/ Feddan for traditional systems. This means that technological systems are superior with about 169%. This increase is attributed to the increase in the total proceeds of technological systems comparing to traditional systems. The study shows that the cost of ton of wheat farmed by technological systems is estimated of about 3362 pound/ Feddan in average against 3414 pound/ Feddan for traditional systems. This means that technological systems exceed traditional systems with about 2%. This decrease is attributed to the increase of the Feddan productivity using technological system comparing to traditional systems. Considering the profit on the invested pound, it reached about 1.10 pounds for the use of technological systems against 0.14 pounds for the use of traditional systems. This shows that the technological systems used in farming wheat is better from both technical and economic point of view which means that the new technological systems used in production covers the total costs and realizing a surpass. This shows the efficiency of resource usage in producing wheat farmed by technological systems. Every pound being spent or invested in farming using technological systems achieves an income of about 10 pounds against one pound for traditional system.
Show more [+] Less [-]HETEROSIS AND COMBINING ABILITY OF SOME BREAD WHEAT GENOTYPES
2018
A. Hassan | M. Ahmed | M. Rashed
Twenty one wheat hybrids and their seven parental genotypes were evaluated in the research farm of the Faculty of Agriculture, Ain shams University, Shoubra El-khema, Cairo, Egypt, in 2016/2017 growing season. The genetic analysis was conducted using Griffing (1956), Method 2, model 1). Significant differences among parent genotypes and their 21 crosses for all the studied traits (days to 50% heading, days to maturity, flag leaf area, plant height, number of spikes/ plant, spike length, number of spikelets/ spike, number of kernels/ spike, 1000-kernel weight and grain yield/ plant) were detected. This indicated that, variability exists among these populations may increase the chance appearance of good new combination that can be isolated in the succeeding generations. Parents versus crosses mean squares as an indication for average heterosis over all crosses were significant for all studied traits. Mean squares of general (GCA) and specific (SCA) combining abilities were significant for all studied traits except spike length trait for SCA which was insignificant. GCA/SCA ratios were more than unity for all studied traits, which indicating that the additive type of gene action is of great importance in the inheritance of these traits. Heterosis over the better parents showed that, the best hybrids were Gemmiza 9xGiza 168, Sakha 93x Giza, 168, Sakha 94x Jawahir-14, Sakha 94x Bob white, Giza 168xAcsad 925 and Jawahir-14x Bob white for grain yield/ plant trait and some of the other studied traits. The best general combiner parents were Sakha 94, Jawahir-14 and Bob white for grain yield/ plant trait and some of the other studied traits. The best SCA hybrids were Gemmiza 9x Sakha 93, Gemmiza 9x Giza 168, Sakha 93x Jawahir-14, Sakha 94xJawahir-14, Sakha 94x Acsad 925, Sakha 94xBob white, Giza 168x Jawahir-14, Giza 168x Acsad 925, Jawahir-14x Bob white and Acsad 925x Bob white for grain yield/ plant trait and some of the other studied traits. These result could be used in wheat breeding programs.
Show more [+] Less [-]THE EFFECT OF HEAT STRESS ON PRODUCTIVE TRAITS FOR THREE EGYPTIAN BREEDS
2018
Habiba Rezk | H. Ayeoub | A. Galal | Lamiaa Radwan
The objective of the present study the effects of heat stress on the productive traits are Play an important role in the poultry industry. The experiment was carried out in the farm of the Faculty of Agriculture-Ain Shams University, reared 600 chick of three breeds (Sinai - Fayoumi - Dandrawi) were divided into equal two groups (the treatment was exposed to heat stress on different periods of 3 days - 8 weeks - 16 weeks on temperature of 400c for 4 hours / 3 days. While, the control under environmental conditions. Then, take the body weight in 8, 10,12,14,16 weeks of ages, and body measurements (shank length, tibia length, body depth, keel length, comb and wattle) in three local breeds. The most important results obtained that It could be observed that the effect was high significantly (p<0.0001) heavier in Fayoumi compared to Dandarawi and Sinai in weight body and The results in the body measurements of the parent stock showed The effect on the Fayoumi breed was higher followed by Dandarawi and Sinai, The effect of the rectal temperature and rate respiratory are significant on the breed and the treatment. Concluded that study the effect on productive traits for three local breeds.
Show more [+] Less [-]EFFECT OF RE-MATING INTERVAL AFTER THE FIRST PARTURITION ON THE LITTER PARAMETERS, MILK YIELD AND REPRODUCTION TRAITS OF RABBIT DOES
2018
Shereen Ghoneim | I. El-Wardany | A. Farid Farid | A. Ahmed | E. Abd El-Kaffy
A total number of 120 nulliparous APRI and Baladi Black does (60 does for each breed) were mated at 5 months of age at the beginning of the breeding season (during September) to study the effect of re-mating interval after the first parturition on the litter parameters, milk yield per day and reproduction traits. All does were randomly divided into three equal groups according to reproductive rhythm: The 1st group: post partum (PP), the 2nd group: 11 days after parturition (P11), and the 3rd group: Post weaning (PW) .The body weight of P11 does were slightly higher than that of PP or PW groups. The re- mating interval groups during second parity had significant (P<0.05) effects on litter traits at weaning. Litter size and Litter weight at weaning age in PW group were higher significantly (P<0.05) than those in PP and P11 groups. Litter weight at 21 days of age in PW and P11 groups were higher significantly (P<0.05) than those in PP group. The PW group had significant higher litter size at weaning than those in PP group. Daily milk yield (DMY) after second parity was affected significantly by re-mating interval groups in the third and fourth week of suckling period. GL in PP group was higher significantly (P<0.05) comparing with P11 or PW groups. The values of litter size and weight traits were better for APRI does comparing with BB except litter weight at 21 days. The difference in results between the two breeds in daily milk yield showed generally higher trend of daily milk yield for APRI over BB. The Kindling interval and the gestation period were significantly (P<0.05) affected by interaction of re-mating interval group and breed. In conclusion, applying a lengthened period after the first kindling (by more than 10 days or after weaning) had a favorable effect on the does’ production.
Show more [+] Less [-]RESPONSE OF COTTON YIELD AND LINT PROPERTIES TO MINERAL N.P.K NANO-FERTILIZATION
2018
A. Zakzok | R. Abdrabou | Abeer Arafa | G. Abd-Elsamad
Two field experiments were conducted at Sakha Research Station, Cotton Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center at Giza, Egypt during the two summer growing seasons ,2014 and 2015 The aim of the work was to study the effect of the combination among nano-fertilization ,mineral fertilization and organic fertilization on growth, yield and fiber technological properties of Egyptian cotton Giza 94 cultivar. The most important results can be summarized as follows: Response of cotton yield and lint properties to mineral N.P.K nano-fertilization the complex treatment contains half dose of both the nano-fertilizer and the bio-organic fertilizer gave the highest reading for plant height (cm), number of fruiting branches per plant, number of open bolls per plant, boll weight (gram), lint percentage, Seed index, Seed cotton yield (Kentar/fed.) , Lint cotton yield (Kentar/fed.), fiber maturity ratio (MR), upper half mean (UHM)mm, fiber uniformity index (UI), fiber strength (g/tex), and micronaire value flowed by the treatment 100% nano then the recommended dose of mineral fertilizer NPK. On the other hand, the lowest values for all the above traits, were recorded from the half does of NPK mineral fertilizer in 2014 and 2015 seasons, .While, There were no significant differences between the means of the fiber elongation % due to the treatments applied during the study in 2014 season .It's worthy to mention that, the percentage of fiber elongation had no constant trend due to fertilizer transactions applied on the adopted genotype during` 2015 season, meaning that nano-fertilizer is boosting the fiber elongation percent.
Show more [+] Less [-]A COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF BROILER LITTER USAGE ALTERNATIVES AS A SOURCE OF FERTILIZER AND A SOURCE OF ENERGY PRODUCTION IN JORDAN
2017
Jawad Al-Dala'een
The increase of broilers production in Jordan makes it urgent to study broiler tiller produced. So, the study uses the economics of broiler litter concerning its usage as a source of energy production or as a source of fertilizers. The reuse of broiler litter (BL) will reduce the environmental impact. This empirical term paper used the different alternatives to manage broiler tiller. Many assumptions have been made to reach the feasibility of managing broiler litter. The results showed that the cash flow of using litter as a source of fertilizer was higher compared to use it for energy production for the years of study (1992-2014). The use of litter as a source of fertilizer as a source of fertilizer is more feasible than being used as a source of energy. The study recommended that the collected litter of broiler farms should be treated through specialized party to increase the economic feasibility and minimize the environmental effects.
Show more [+] Less [-]STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION AND COSTS FUNCTIONS OF CEREAL IN THE ARAB WORLD
2017
Mona Abdel Kareem
crops in Arab world, this being a staple food of the citizen Arab, and is the research problem in the decline of production of the main cereal crops of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum rates in the Arab world, which accounts for about 50.7 million tons with an increase of consumption, which represent about 129 million tons during the period (2000-2013), and targeted research study economy, thus the Arab homeland cereal production through the study of the current situation of cereal production for the most important producing countries, and the estimation of the statistical production functions and costs for cereal Arab world . The most important results have resulted in the following: 1- Studying the cereal production function in the short run in Arab world, and estimates flexibility productivity total of elements used for the function, which reflected the nature of increasing returns to scale for the three categories, respectively, in terms of production increases by the biggest increase production elements used, and appreciated the flexibility the production total of the elements of production in the estimated function in the long run, which amounted to about 0.9 nature of returns to scale declining terms of decreasing production by less than the increase in production factors. 2- The estimation of the economic efficiency of the use of seeds, and the number of agricultural tractors, and fertilizers in cereal functions production for world Arab for the three categories of productivity, results showed that there Optimal utilization of the two elements of seed and fertilizer in the third category and this agreed with the economic logic and therefore advised production under this category because it represents the appropriate size for the production of cereal –in Arab world, and the assessment of the economic efficiency of the productive classes the first and second shows the significant need to intensify the use of racist seeds, agricultural tractors and agreed with this economic logic . 3- By studying the cost functions of production for cereal-producing countries for cereal world Arab three classes in the short and long respectively term, low cost per unit produced increased scale productivity shows that consistent with economic logic, and thus advised to production on an economic scale under the third category as they approach the appropriate size cereal production, which represents the average output of about 23.2 million tons, and size optimized for the production of about 30 million tons, which means higher economic efficiency for this category and therefore is cereal production in this category, which is represented in Egypt, Morocco, Iraq, Syria, Somalia is better than the technical and economic face on the basis of less expensive Mid of the second category, regardless of the first category where not recommended for the production of cereal in the first category on an economic scale, which is represented in Oman, Kuwait, Mauritania, due to the weakness of each of the areas and so production can have, and the average unit cost of about 1.3, 106.6, 22.9 dollars per ton, respectively for the three categories, and this confirms previous results, also showed marginal costs for cereal estimates in the long run, which amounted to about $ 33.8 / ton, while the average cost of producing a ton of grain amounted to about $ 20, and as the optimal size of the production of about 20.25 million tons in the long run.
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