Objective-To use mathematical modeling to assess the effectiveness of control strategies for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus on a swine farm. Sample-A hypothetical small, medium, or large farrow-to-weaning swine farm in the Midwestern United States. Procedures-Stochastic models were formulated to simulate an outbreak of PRRS on a farm. Control strategies assessed in those models included none (baseline) and various combinations of mass immunization, herd closure, and gilt acclimatization. Nine different models resulting from the combination of low, moderate, or high PRRS virus virulence and small, medium, or large herd size were simulated. A stabilized status, the outcome of interest, was defined as the absence of positive PCR assay results for PRRS virus in 3-week-old piglets. For each scenario, the percentage of simulations with a stabilized status was used as a proxy for the probability of disease control. Results-Increasing PRRS virus virulence and herd size were negatively associated with the probability of achieving a stabilized status. Repeated mass immunization with herd closure or gilt acclimitization was a better alternative than was single mass immunization for disease control within a farm. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Repeated mass immunization with a PRRS modified-live virus vaccine with herd closure or gilt acclimitization was the scenario most likely to achieve a stabilized status. Estimation of the cost of various PRRS control strategies is necessary.

Objective-To evaluate various sampling strategies for potential use in measuring prevalence of antimicrobial susceptibility in cattle. Sample Population-500 isolates of non-type-specific Escherichia coli (NTSEC) isolated from the feces of 50 cows from 2 dairy farms (25 cows/farm and 10 isolates/cow). Procedures-Diameters of inhibition zones for 12 antimicrobials were analyzed to estimate variation among isolates, cows, and farms and then used to determine sampling distributions for a stochastic simulation model to evaluate 4 sampling strategies. These theoretic sampling strategies used a total of 100 isolates in 4 allocations (1 isolate from 100 cows, 2 isolates from 50 cows, 3 isolates from 33 cows, or 4 isolates from 25 cows). Results-Analysis of variance composition revealed that 74.2% of variation was attributable to isolates, 18.5% to cows, and 7.3% to farms. Analysis of results of simulations suggested that when most of the variance was attributable to differences among isolates within a cow, culturing 1 isolate from each of 100 cows underestimated overall prevalence, compared with results for culturing more isolates per cow from fewer cows. When variance was not primarily attributable to differences among isolates, all 4 sampling strategies yielded similar results. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-It is not always possible to predict the hierarchical level at which clustering will have its greatest impact on observed susceptibility distributions. Results suggested that sampling strategies that use testing of 3 or 4 isolates/cow from a representative sample of all animals better characterize herd prevalence of antimicrobial resistance when impacted by clustering.

Objective-To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-andmouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. Sample Population-2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. Procedure-A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. Results-Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.

Epidemiologic modeling of the likely herd-to-herd transmission of pseudorabies virus (PRV) was developed to assess the progress and potential for the PRV-eradication program in the United States. The herd-to-herd transmission of PRV over a 20-year period (1993 to 2012) in the United States was simulated under various scenarios, which included variable program-funding levels and variable prevalences. A transition model (Markov process model) was used to predict yearly changes in herd prevalence of PRV infection. Five mutually exclusive states of nature for herds were assumed: uninfected and not vaccinated; uninfected and vaccinated; known to be infected and not vaccinated; known to be infected and vaccinated; and infected, but not known to be infected. Three prevalences for states in the United States were assumed: higher prevalence, moderate prevalence, and lower prevalence. Three funding levels were assumed: no eradication program, continued funding at the current level, and increased funding of 25%. Estimates made by an expert panel for determining probabilities in the state-transition matrices were used. A model also was developed, and was considered to be the most optimistic scenario likely under increased funding of 25%. The most optimistic estimates of the probabilities that still lay within the range of estimates made by the expert panel were used for this model. Only the optimistic transmission matrices allowed for total eradication of PRV. Using the optimistic matrices, all states in the United States of America had moved into the moderate- or low-level risk status by the year 2000. The longest time taken to achieve eradication was for the state of Iowa, where eradication was not achieved until 2012.