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Preparing for the unprecedented — Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas
2017
Nevalainen, Maisa | Helle, Inari | Vanhatalo, Jarno
The probability of major oil accidents in Arctic seas is increasing alongside with increasing maritime traffic. Hence, there is a growing need to understand the risks posed by oil spills to these unique and sensitive areas. So far these risks have mainly been acknowledged in terms of qualitative descriptions. We introduce a probabilistic framework, based on a general food web approach, to analyze ecological impacts of oil spills. We argue that the food web approach based on key functional groups is more appropriate for providing holistic view of the involved risks than assessments based on single species. We discuss the issues characteristic to the Arctic that need a special attention in risk assessment, and provide examples how to proceed towards quantitative risk estimates. The conceptual model presented in the paper helps to identify the most important risk factors and can be used as a template for more detailed risk assessments.
Show more [+] Less [-]Contamination and ecological risk assessment of trace elements in sediments of the rivers of Sundarban mangrove forest, Bangladesh
2017
Islam, M.A. | Al-mamun, A. | Hossain, F. | Quraishi, S.B. | Naher, K. | Khan, R. | Das, S. | Tamim, U. | Hossain, S.M. | Nahid, F.
In this study, total concentrations of 16 trace elements (Al, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, Hg, Pb, Th and U) in sediments of the rivers of the Sundarban mangrove forest, after the catastrophic oil spill accident in the Sela river of Sundarban, were determined. The overall mean concentrations of V, Cr, Fe and Cd in surface sediments of the Sundarban are remarkably higher than available literature data of those elements. Trace element contamination assessment, using different environmental contamination indices, reveals that As, Sb, Th and U are low to moderately contaminated while Cd is moderately to severely contaminated in the sediments of this area. The multivariate statistical analyses were applied to reveal the origin and behavior of the elements during their transport in the mangrove ecosystem. High Cr, Ni, Cu and As concentrations suggest the risk of potentially adverse biological effects in the ecosystem.
Show more [+] Less [-]Spatial assessment of radiocaesium in the largest lagoon in Fukushima after the TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident
2017
Kambayashi, Shota | Zhang, Jing | Narita, Hisashi
Radionuclides deposited on land by global fallouts and nuclear power station accidents spread over coastal environments through estuarine areas connecting land to ocean. In this study, we monitored activity concentration of radiocaesium in surface sediment and re-suspended particles in Matsukawa-ura lagoon, the largest lagoon in Fukushima, after the TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident. Radiocaesium distribution in surface sediment varied spatiotemporally and irregularly due to the effect of tidal waves. The effective half-life was significantly shorter than physical half-life, suggesting some system of radiocaesium discharge in the lagoon. Sediment trap observation revealed re-suspended particles from sediment were transported to the ocean. For these reasons, it is suggested that re-suspension of particles in the lagoon and their transportation to the ocean by the seawater exchange process are important processes of radiocaesium discharge. Moreover, our results show that seawater exchange process contributes to the dispersion of radiocaesium in the ocean.
Show more [+] Less [-]Estimating oil pollution risk in environmentally sensitive areas of petrochemical terminals based on a stochastic numerical simulation
2017
Xie, Cheng | Deng, Jian | Zhuang, Yuan | Sun, Hao
This paper presents a method based on the oceanic current model and the oil spill model to evaluate the pollution risk of sensitive resources when oil spills occur. Moreover, this study proposes a novel impact index based on the risk theory to improve the risk assessment accuracy. The impact probability and the first impact time of the oil spill are calculated through a stochastic numerical simulation. The risk assessment content is enriched by establishing an impact model that considers the impact of sensitive index and spillage. Finally, the risk score of sensitive resources in an oil spill accident is visualized for formulating a scientific and effective protection priority order in a contamination response strategy. This study focuses on integrating every possible impact factor that plays a role in risk assessment and helps to provide a better theoretical support for protecting sensitive resources.
Show more [+] Less [-]Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system
2017
Hou, Xianlong | Hodges, Ben R. | Feng, Dongyu | Liu, Qixiao
As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment.
Show more [+] Less [-]Health risk assessment of cadmium pollution emergency for urban populations in Foshan City, China
2017
Dou, Ming | Zhao, Peipei | Wang, Yanyan | Li, Guiqiu
With rapid socioeconomic development, water pollution emergency has become increasingly common and could potentially harm the environment and human health, especially heavy metal pollution. In this paper, we investigate the Cd pollution emergency that occurred in the Pearl River network, China, in 2005, and we build a migration and transformation model for heavy metals to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of Cd concentrations under various scenarios of Cd pollution emergency in Foshan City. Moreover, human health hazard and carcinogenic risk for local residents of Foshan City were evaluated. The primary conclusions were as follows: (1) the number of carcinogen-affected people per year under scenario 1 reached 254.41 when the frequency was 0.1 year/time; specifically, the number of people with cancer per year in the area of the Datang, Lubao, and Nanbian waterworks was 189.36 accounting for 74% of the total number per year; (2) at the frequency of 5 years/time, the Lubao waterwork is the only one in extremely high- or high-risk grade, while besides it, the risk grade in the Datang, Nanbian, Xinan, Shitang, and Jianlibao waterworks is in the extremely high or high grade when the frequency is 0.1 year/time; (3) when Cd pollution accidents with the same level occurs again, Cd concentration decreases to a low level in the water only if the migration distance of Cd is at least 40–50 km. Based on the health risk assessment of Cd pollution, this study gives the recommendation that the distance should keep above 50 km in tidal river network of the Pearl River Delta between those factories existing the possibility of heavy metal pollution and the drinking water source. Only then can the public protect themselves from hazardous effects of higher levels of heavy metal.
Show more [+] Less [-]The ways of use of multilayered graphene in engineering ecology
2017
Makotchenko, Victor G. | Makotchenko, Eugenia V. | Pinakov, Dmitry V.
The applications of multilayered graphenes (MLGs), nanocomposites “MLG–decontaminant” and polydicarbonfluoride intercalation compounds for the localization and deactivation of toxic spills and gaseous emissions under technogenic accidents are investigated in this paper. The intercalation compounds contain oxidizers as intercalants, and MLGs are formed destructively by thermolysis of polydicarbonfluoride intercalation compounds. The sorptive capacity of MLGs (about 240 ml of liquid phase per 1 g of MLG) is much higher than in well-known expanded graphites (EGs) obtained from graphite oxide or graphite acid salts. Our investigation revealed the possibility of the production of the “MLG–decontaminant” nanocomposites with the neutralizator content >95% due to the extremely low (down to 0.4 g/l) apparent density of MLG and its high specific surface (about 370 m²/g). The use of these nanocomposites for the acid–base or redox neutralization of contaminants does not result in the overheating, sputtering or evaporation of liquid phases, because their neutralization products sorb into MLGs. It prevents the soil mineralization by liquid or solid deactivated spills. We revealed that polydicarbonfluoride intercalation compounds with oxidizers (ClF₃, HNO₃, N₂O₄) can be efficiently used for the deactivation of spills and gaseous emissions of nitrogen-containing base compounds.
Show more [+] Less [-]Securitization product design for China’s environmental pollution liability insurance
2017
Pu, Chengyi | Addai, Bismark | Pan, Xiaojun | Bo, Pangtuo
The environmental catastrophic accidents in China over the last three decades have triggered implementation of myriad policies by the government to help abate environmental pollution in the country. Consequently, research into environmental pollution liability insurance and how that can stimulate economic growth and the development of financial market in China is worthwhile. This study attempts to design a financial derivative for China’s environmental pollution liability insurance to offer strong financial support for significant compensation towards potential catastrophic environmental loss exposures, especially losses from the chemical industry. Assuming the risk-free interest rate is 4%, the market portfolio expected return is 12%; the financial asset beta coefficient is 0.5, by using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and cash flow analysis; the principal risk bond yields 9.4%, single-period and two-period prices are 103.85 and 111.58, respectively; the principal partial-risk bond yields 10.09%, single-period and two-period prices are 103.85 and 111.58, respectively; and the principal risk-free bond yields 8.94%, single-period and two-period prices are 107.99 and 115.83, respectively. This loss exposure transfer framework transfers the catastrophic risks of environmental pollution from the traditional insurance and reinsurance markets to the capital market. This strengthens the underwriting capacity of environmental pollution liability insurance companies, mitigates the compensation risks of insurers and reinsurers, and provides a new channel to transfer the risks of environmental pollution.
Show more [+] Less [-]Cleaner processing: a sulphide—free approach for depilation of skins
2017
Ranjithkumar, Ammasi | Durga, Jayanthi | Ramesh, Ramakrishnan | Rose, Chellan | Muralidharan, Chellappa
The conventional unhairing process in leather making utilises large amount of lime and sodium sulphide which is hazardous and poses serious waste disposal concerns. Under acidic conditions, sodium sulphide liberates significant quantities of hydrogen sulphide which causes frequent fatal accidents. Further, the conventional unhairing process involves destruction of the hair leading to increased levels of biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total dissolved solids (TDS) and total suspended solids (TSS) in the effluent. A safe approach is needed to overcome such environmental and health problems through an eco-benign process. The present study deals with a clean technology in which the keratinous body is detached from the dermis using enzymes produced from Bacillus crolab MTCC 5468 by solid state fermentation (SSF) as an alternative to noxious chemicals. Complete unhairing of skin could be achieved with an enzyme concentration of 1.2 % (w/w). The bio-chemical parameters of the spent liquor of the enzymatic process were environmentally favourable when compared with conventional method. The study indicates that the enzymatic unhairing is a safe process which could be used effectively in leather processing to alleviate pollution and health problems.
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