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Dynamic model to predict the association between air quality, COVID-19 cases, and level of lockdown
2021
Tadano, Yara S. | Potgieter-Vermaak, Sanja | Kachba, Yslene R. | Chiroli, Daiane M.G. | Casacio, Luciana | Santos-Silva, Jéssica C. | Moreira, Camila A.B. | Machado, Vivian | Alves, Thiago Antonini | Siqueira, Hugo | Godoi, Ricardo H.M.
Studies have reported significant reductions in air pollutant levels due to the COVID-19 outbreak worldwide global lockdowns. Nevertheless, all of the reports are limited compared to data from the same period over the past few years, providing mainly an overview of past events, with no future predictions. Lockdown level can be directly related to the number of new COVID-19 cases, air pollution, and economic restriction. As lockdown status varies considerably across the globe, there is a window for mega-cities to determine the optimum lockdown flexibility. To that end, firstly, we employed four different Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to examine the compatibility to the original levels of CO, O₃, NO₂, NO, PM₂.₅, and PM₁₀, for São Paulo City, the current Pandemic epicenter in South America. After checking compatibility, we simulated four hypothetical scenarios: 10%, 30%, 70%, and 90% lockdown to predict air pollution levels. To our knowledge, ANN have not been applied to air pollution prediction by lockdown level. Using a limited database, the Multilayer Perceptron neural network has proven to be robust (with Mean Absolute Percentage Error ∼ 30%), with acceptable predictive power to estimate air pollution changes. We illustrate that air pollutant levels can effectively be controlled and predicted when flexible lockdown measures are implemented. The models will be a useful tool for governments to manage the delicate balance among lockdown, number of COVID-19 cases, and air pollution.
Show more [+] Less [-]Changes in air quality during COVID-19 ‘lockdown’ in the United Kingdom
2021
Jephcote, Calvin | Hansell, A. L. (Anna L.) | Adams, Kathryn | Gulliver, John
The UK implemented a lockdown in Spring (2020) to curtail the person-to-person transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Measures restricted movements to one outing per day for exercise and shopping, otherwise most people were restricted to their dwelling except for key workers (e.g. medical, supermarkets, and transport). In this study, we quantified changes to air quality across the United Kingdom from 30/03/2020 to 03/05/2020 (weeks 14–18), the period of most stringent travel restrictions. Daily pollutant measurements of NO₂, O₃ and PM₂.₅ from the national network of monitoring sites during this period were compared with measurements over the same period during 2017–19. Comparisons were also made with predicted concentrations for the 2020 period from business-as-usual (BAU) modelling, where the contributions of normal anthropogenic activities were estimated under the observed meteorological conditions. During the lockdown study period there was a 69% reduction in traffic overall (74% reduction in light and 35% in heavy vehicles). Measurements from 129 monitoring stations, identified mean reductions in NO₂ of 38.3% (−8.8 μg/m³) and PM₂.₅ of 16.5% (−2.2 μg/m³). Improvements in NO₂ and PM₂.₅ were largest at urban traffic sites and more modest at background locations where a large proportion of the population live. In contrast, O₃ concentrations on average increased by 7.6% (+4.8 μg/m³) with the largest increases at roadside sites due to reductions in local emissions of NO. A lack of VOC monitoring limited our capacity to interpret changes in O₃ at urban background locations. BAU models predicted comparable NO₂ reductions and O₃ gains, although PM₂.₅ episodes would have been more prominent without lockdown. Results demonstrate the relatively modest contribution of traffic to air quality, suggesting that sustained improvements in air quality require actions across various sectors, including working with international and European initiatives on long-range transport air pollutants, especially PM₂.₅ and O₃.
Show more [+] Less [-]Assessment and statistical modelling of airborne microorganisms in Madrid
2021
Cordero, José María | Núñez, Andrés | García, Ana M. | Borge, Rafael
The limited evidence available suggests that the interaction between chemical pollutants and biological particles may intensify respiratory diseases caused by air pollution in urban areas. Unlike air pollutants, which are routinely measured, records of biotic component are scarce. While pollen concentrations are daily surveyed in most cities, data related to airborne bacteria or fungi are not usually available. This work presents the first effort to understand atmospheric pollution integrating both biotic and abiotic agents, trying to identify relationships among the Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria and Ascomycota phyla with palynological, meteorological and air quality variables using all biological historical records available in the Madrid Greater Region. The tools employed involve statistical hypothesis contrast tests such as Kruskal-Wallis and machine learning algorithms. A cluster analysis was performed to analyse which abiotic variables were able to separate the biotic variables into groups. Significant relationships were found for temperature and relative humidity. In addition, the relative abundance of the biological phyla studied was affected by PM₁₀ and O₃ ambient concentration. Preliminary Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to predict the biotic relative abundances based on these atmospheric variables were developed. The results (r = 0.70) were acceptable taking into account the scarcity of the available data. These models can be used as an indication of the biotic composition when no measurements are available. They are also a good starting point to continue working in the development of more accurate models and to investigate causal relationships.
Show more [+] Less [-]Fusion of land use regression modeling output and wireless distributed sensor network measurements into a high spatiotemporally-resolved NO2 product
2021
Shafran-Nathan, Rakefet | Etzion, Yael | Broday, David M.
Land use regression modeling is a common method for assessing exposure to ambient pollutants, yet it suffers from very coarse temporal resolution. Wireless distributed sensor networks (WDSN) is a promising technology that can provide extremely high spatiotemporal pollutant patterns but is known to suffer from several limitations that put into question its data reliability. This study examines the advantages of fusing data from these two methods and obtaining high spatiotemporally-resolved product that can be used for exposure assessment. We demonstrate this approach by estimating nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations at a sub-urban scale, with the study area limited by the deployment of the WDSN nodes. Specifically, hourly-resolved fused-data estimates were obtained by combining a stationary traffic-based land use regression (LUR) model with observations (15 min sampling frequency) made by an array of low-cost sensor nodes, with the sensors’ readings mapped over the whole study area. Data fusion was performed by merging the two independent information products using a fuzzy logic approach. The performance of the fused product was examined against reference hourly observations at four air quality monitoring (AQM) stations situated within the study area, with the AQM data not used for the development of any of the underlying information layers. The mean hourly RMSE between the fused data product and the AQM records was 9.3 ppb, smaller than the RMSE of the two base products independently (LUR: 14.87 ppb, WDSN: 10.45 ppb). The normalized Moran’s I of the fused product indicates that the data-fusion product reveals more realistic spatial patterns than those of the base products. The fused NO₂ concentration product shows considerable spatial variability relative to that evident by interpolation of both the WDSN records and the AQM stations data, with significant non-random patterns in 74% of the study period.
Show more [+] Less [-]Assessment of the ability of roadside vegetation to remove particulate matter from the urban air
2021
Kończak, B. | Cempa, M. | Pierzchała, Ł | Deska, M.
The development of urbanised areas together with the growing transport infrastructure and traffic volume are the main cause of air quality deterioration due to the increasing concentrations of particulate matter. Dust pollution is a threat to human health. It can cause the development of lung, larynx or circulatory system cancer. Due to the ability to accumulate dust particles on the leaf surface, the contribution of trees in the process of phytoremediation of air pollution has started to be appreciated. An analysis of the elemental composition of particulate matter (PM) stored on the leaves surface was also carried out, which showed high average concentration of: C > O > Si > Fe (above 8wt.%). It was also observed single particles with a high concentration of heavy metals: Ti, Mn, Ba, Zn, Cr, Pb, Sn, Ni and REE (rare earth elements). The major origin of PM are vehicular emissions, soil and re-suspended road dust. This paper presents also a comparison of selected tree, shrub and vine species differing in their ability to accumulate particulate matter. It was experimentally determined the average leaf surface of individual plant species and established the amount of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter between 10 and 100 μm, 2.5 and 10 μm, and 0.2 and 2.5 μm deposited on the leaf surface and in waxes.Some species of vines (Parthenocissus quinquefolia), shrubs (Forsythia x intermediata) and coniferous trees, such as Betula pendula ‘Youngii’, Quercus rubra, Cratageus monogyna, Acer pseduoplatanus, Tilia cordata Mill. or Platanus orientalis turned out to be the most efficient in the process of phylloremediation.
Show more [+] Less [-]Site-scale modeling of surface ozone in Northern Bavaria using machine learning algorithms, regional dynamic models, and a hybrid model
2021
Nabavi, Seyed Omid | Nölscher, Anke C. | Samimi, Cyrus | Thomas, Christoph | Haimberger, Leopold | Lüers, Johannes | Held, Andreas
Ozone (O₃) is a harmful pollutant when present in the lowermost layer of the atmosphere. Therefore, the European Commission formulated directives to regulate O₃ concentrations in near-surface air. However, almost 50% of the 5068 air quality stations in Europe do not monitor O₃ concentrations. This study aims to provide a hybrid modeling system that fills these gaps in the hourly surface O₃ observations on a site scale with much higher accuracy than existing O₃ models. This hybrid model was developed using estimations from multiple linear regression-based eXtreme Gradient Boosting Machines (MLR-XGBM) and O₃ reanalysis from European regional air quality models (CAMS-EU). The binary classification of extremely high O₃ events and the 1- and 24-h forecasts of hourly O₃ were investigated as secondary aims. In this study thirteen stations in Northern Bavaria, out of which six do not monitor O₃, were chosen as test sites. Considering the computational complexity of machine learning algorithms (MLAs), we also applied two recent MLA interpretation methods, namely SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME).With SHAP, we showed an increasing effect of temperature on O₃ concentrations which intensifies for temperatures exceeding 17 °C. According to LIME, O₃ concentration peaks are mainly governed by meteorological factors under dry and warm conditions on a regional scale, whereas local nitrogen oxide concentrations control base O₃ concentrations during cold and wet periods.While recently developed MLAs for the spatial estimation of hourly O₃ concentrations had a station-based root-mean-square error (RMSE) above 27 μg/m³, our proposed model significantly reduced the estimation errors by about 66% with an RMSE of 9.49 μg/m³. We also found that logistic regression (LR) and MLR-XGBM performed best in the site-scale classification and 24-h forecast of O₃ concentrations (with a station-averaged accuracy and RMSE of 0.95 and 19.34 μg/m³, respectively).
Show more [+] Less [-]Factors affecting the exposure to physicochemical and microbiological pollutants in vehicle cabins while commuting in Lisbon
2021
Buitrago, N.D. | Savdie, J. | Almeida, S.M. | Verde, S Cabo
Commuters are exposed to a variety of physicochemical and microbiological pollutants that can lead to adverse health effects. This study aims to evaluate the indoor air quality (IAQ) in cars, buses and trains in Lisbon, to estimate inhaled doses while commuting and to evaluate the impacts of cleaning and ventilation on the IAQ. Particulate matter with diameter lower than 1, 2.5 and 10 μm (PM₁, PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀), black carbon (BC), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂) volatile organic compounds (VOCs), formaldehyde (CH₂O) and total airborne bacteria and fungi were measured and bacterial isolates were identified. Results showed that the type of ventilation is the main factor affecting the IAQ in vehicle cabins. Under the fan off condition, the concentration of BC was lower, but the concentration of gases such as CO₂, CO and VOC tended to accumulate rapidly. When the ventilation was used, the coarse particles were filtered originating the decrease of indoor concentrations. Commuters travelling in trains received the lowest dose for all chemical pollutants, except VOC, mainly because railways are further away from the direct vehicular emissions. Commuters travelling in cars without ventilation received the highest inhaled dose for almost all pollutants despite having the lowest travel duration. Airborne microbiota was highly affected by the occupancy of the vehicles and therefore, the fungi and bacterial loads were higher in trains and buses. Most of the isolated species were human associated bacteria and some of the most abundant species have been linked to respiratory tract infections.
Show more [+] Less [-]A review of strategies for mitigating roadside air pollution in urban street canyons
2021
Huang, Yuhan | Lei, Chengwang | Liu, Chun-Ho | Perez-Rubin, Pascale | Forehead, Hugh | Kong, Shaofei | Zhou, John L.
Urban street canyons formed by high-rise buildings restrict the dispersion of vehicle emissions, which pose severe health risks to the public by aggravating roadside air quality. However, this issue is often overlooked in city planning. This paper reviews the mechanisms controlling vehicle emission dispersion in urban street canyons and the strategies for managing roadside air pollution. Studies have shown that air pollution hotspots are not all attributed to heavy traffic and proper urban design can mitigate air pollution. The key factors include traffic conditions, canyon geometry, weather conditions and chemical reactions. Two categories of mitigation strategies are identified, namely traffic interventions and city planning. Popular traffic interventions for street canyons include low emission zones and congestion charges which can moderately improve roadside air quality. In comparison, city planning in terms of building geometry can significantly promote pollutant dispersion in street canyons. General design guidelines, such as lower canyon aspect ratio, alignment between streets and prevailing winds, non-uniform building heights and ground-level building porosity, may be encompassed in new development. Concurrently, in-street barriers are widely applicable to rectify the poor roadside air quality in existing street canyons. They are broadly classified into porous (e.g. trees and hedges) and solid (e.g. kerbside parked cars, noise fences and viaducts) barriers that utilize their aerodynamic advantages to ease roadside air pollution. Post-evaluations are needed to review these strategies by real-world field experiments and more detailed modelling in the practical perspective.
Show more [+] Less [-]Mapping high resolution national daily NO2 exposure across mainland China using an ensemble algorithm
2021
Liu, Jianjun
Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) is an important air pollutant and highly related to air quality, short- and long-term health effects, and even climate. A national model was developed using the extreme gradient boosting algorithm with high-resolution tropospheric vertical column NO₂ densities from the Sentinel-5 Precursor/Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument and general meteorological variables as input to generate daily mean surface NO₂ concentrations across mainland China. Model-derived daily NO₂ estimates were high accuracy with sample-based cross-validation coefficient of determination of 0.83, a root-mean-square error of 7.58 μg/m³, a mean prediction error of 5.56 μg/m³, and a mean relative prediction error of 18.08%. It has good performance in NO₂ estimations at both regional and individual site scale. The model also performed well in terms of estimating monthly, seasonal, and annual mean NO₂ concentrations across China. The model performance appears to better than or comparable to most previous related studies. The seasonal and annual spatial distributions of surface NO₂ across China and several regional NO₂ hotspots in 2019 were derived from the model and analyzed. Also evaluated were the population exposure levels of NO₂ for cities in and provinces of China. At the national scale, about 12% of the population experienced annual mean NO₂ concentrations exceeding the Chinese national air quality standard. The nationwide model with conventional predictors developed here can derive high-resolution surface NO₂ concentrations across China routinely, benefitting air epidemiological and environmental related studies.
Show more [+] Less [-]Integrated analysis of source-specific risks for PM2.5-bound metals in urban, suburban, rural, and industrial areas
2021
Xu, Jinyou | Chi, Kai-Hsien | Wu, Chih-Da | Lin, Sheng-Lun | Hsu, Wen-Chang | Tseng, Chun-Chieh | Chen, Mu-Jean | Chen, Yu-Cheng
The levels and characteristics of atmospheric metals vary in time and location, can result in various health impacts, which increases the challenge of air quality management. We aimed to investigate PM₂.₅-bound metals in multiple locations and propose a methodology for comparing metal elements across study regions and prioritizing source contributions through integrated health risk assessments. PM₂.₅-bound metals were collected in the urban, suburban, rural, and industrial regions of Taiwan between 2016 and 2018. We incorporated the positive matrix factorization (PMF) with health risk assessments (considering estimates of the margin of exposure (MOE) and excess cancer risk (ECR)) to prioritize sources for control. We found that the concentrations of Fe, Zn, V, Cu, and Mn (industry-related metals) were higher at the industrial site (Kaohsiung) and Ba, Cr, Ni, Mo, and Co (traffic-related metals) were higher at the urban site (Taipei). The rural site (Hualian) had good air quality, with low PM₂.₅ and metal concentrations. Most metal concentrations were higher during the cold season for all study sites, except for the rural. Ambient concentrations of Mn, Cr, and Pb obtained from all study sites presents a higher health risk of concern. In Kaohsiung, south Taiwan, PM₂.₅-bound metals from the iron ore and steel factory is suggested as the first target for control based on the calculated health risks (MOE < 1 and ECR > 10⁻⁶). Overall, we proposed an integrated strategy for initiating the source management prioritization of PM₂.₅-bound metals, which can aid an effort for policymaking.
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