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Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity
2016
Rizzetto, Simon | Belyazid, Salim | Gégout, Jean-Claude | Nicolas, Manuel | Alard, Didier | Corket, Emmanuel | Gaudio, Noémie | Sverdrup, Harald | Probst, Anne | Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement (LEFE) ; Institut Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS Ecologie et Environnement (INEE-CNRS) ; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Université de Toulouse (UT) | Skane University Hospital [Lund] | Laboratoire d'Etudes des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech | Office national des forêts (ONF) | Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés (BioGeCo) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Bordeaux (UB) | University of Iceland [Reykjavik] | ANR-11-LABX-0002,ARBRE,Recherches Avancées sur l'Arbre et les Ecosytèmes Forestiers(2011)
International audience | A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term.
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