Marine plastic pollution is a global issue, from the shores to the open ocean. Understanding the pathway and fate of plastic debris is fundamental to manage and reduce plastic pollution. Here, the fate of floating plastic pollution discharged along the coasts is studied by comparing two sources, one based on river discharges and the other on mismanaged waste from coastal populations, using a Lagrangian numerical analysis in a global ocean circulation model. About 1/3 of the particles end up in the open ocean and 2/3 on beaches. The input scenario largely influences the accumulation of particles toward the main subtropical convergence zones, with the South Pacific and North Atlantic being mostly fed by the coastal population inputs. The input scenario influences the number of beached particles that end up in several coastal areas. Beaching occurs mainly locally, although a significant number of particles travel long distances, allowing for global connectivity.

The world's oceans are facing plastic pollution, 80 % of which of terrestrial origin flowing from the mismanaged waste of coastal populations and from river discharge. To study the fate of this pollution, the three-dimensional trajectories of neutral plastic particles continuously released for 24 years according to realistic source scenarios are computed using currents from a global ocean-wave coupled model at resolution and from a reference ocean-only model. These Lagrangian simulations show that neutral particles accumulate at the surface in the subtropical convergence zones from where they penetrate to about 250 m depth and strongly disperse over 40∘ of latitude. About 5.3 % of the particles remain at the surface with the wave-coupled model currents, whereas only 2 % for the uncoupled model, with some modulation in the location of the convergence zones. Increased surface retention results from upward vertical velocities induced by widespread divergence of waves-induced Stokes transport in the surface layers.

In the open ocean, floating surface debris such as plastics concentrate in five main accumulation zones centered around 30° latitude, far from highly turbulent areas. Using Lagrangian advection of numerical particles by surface currents from ocean model reanalysis, previous studies have shown long-distance connection from the accumulation zones of the South Indian to the South Pacific oceans. An important physical process affecting surface particles but missing in such analyses is wave-induced Stokes drift. Taking into account surface Stokes drift from a wave model reanalysis radically changes the fate of South Indian particles. The convergence region moves from the east to the west of the basin, so particles leak to the South Atlantic rather than the South Pacific. Stokes drift changes the South Indian sensitive balance between Ekman convergence and turbulent diffusion processes, inducing either westward entrainment in the north of the accumulation zone, or eastward entrainment in the south.

Vast quantities of debris are beaching at remote islands in the western Indian Ocean. We carry out marine dispersal simulations incorporating currents, waves, winds, beaching, and sinking, for both terrestrial and marine sources of debris, to predict where this debris comes from. Our results show that most terrestrial debris beaching at these remote western Indian Ocean islands drifts from Indonesia, India, and Sri Lanka. Debris associated with fisheries and shipping also poses a major risk. Debris accumulation at Seychelles is likely seasonal, peaking during February–April. This pattern is driven by monsoonal winds and may be amplified during positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El-Niño events. Our results underline the vulnerability of small island states to marine plastic pollution, and are a crucial step towards improved management of the issue. The trajectories used in this study are available for download, and our analyses can be rerun under different parameter choices.