This study represents the first quantitative global prediction of the mass distribution of six widespread polymers, plus plastic fibers and rubber across four environmental compartments and 11 sub-compartments. The approach used probabilistic material flow analysis for 2015, with model input values and transfer coefficients between compartments taken from literature. We estimated that 3.2 ± 1.8 Mt/year of polyethylene, 1.3 ± 0.8 Mt/year of polypropylene, 0.5 ± 0.3 Mt/year of polystyrene, 0.3 ± 0.15 Mt/year of polyvinyl chloride, 1.6 ± 0.9 Mt/year of polyethylene terephthalate and 2.4 ± 1.2 Mt/year of plastic fibers enter the environment. Combining all plastic, including rubber, 4.9 ± 1.3, 4.8 ± 1.9 and 1.8 ± 1.2 Mt/year accumulated in the soil, ocean, and freshwater, respectively. Urban soils and ocean shorelines were predicted as hotspots for plastic accumulation, accounting for 33% and 25% of total plastic, respectively. The floor of freshwater systems and the ocean were predicted as hotspots for high density plastic such as polyethylene terephthalate, polyvinyl chloride and plastic fibers. Furthermore, 59% of environmental rubber was predicted to accumulate in soil. The findings of this study provide baseline data for quantifying plastic transport and accumulation, which can inform future ecotoxicity studies and risk assessments, as well as targeting efforts to mitigate plastic pollution.

Synthetic microfibers have been identified as the most prevalent type of microplastic in samples from aquatic, atmospheric, and terrestrial environments across the globe. Apparel washing has shown to be a major source of microfiber pollution. We used California as a case study to estimate the magnitude and fate of microfiber emissions, and to evaluate potential mitigation approaches. First, we quantified synthetic microfiber emissions and fate from apparel washing in California by developing a material flow model which connects California-specific data on synthetic fiber consumption, apparel washing, microfiber generation, and wastewater and biosolid management practices. Next, we used the model to assess the effectiveness of different interventions to reduce microfiber emissions to natural environments. We estimate that in 2019 as much as 2.2 kilotons (kt) of synthetic microfibers were generated by apparel washing in California, a 26% increase since 2008. The majority entered terrestrial environments (1.6 kt), followed by landfills (0.4 kt), waterbodies (0.1 kt), and incineration (0.1 kt). California's wastewater treatment network was estimated to divert 95% of microfibers from waterbodies, mainly to terrestrial environments and primarily via land application of biosolids. Our analysis also reveals that application of biosolids on agricultural lands facilitates a directional flow of microfibers from higher-income urban counties to lower-income rural communities. Without interventions, annual synthetic microfiber emissions to California's natural environments are expected to increase by 17% to 2.1 kt by 2026. Further increasing the microfiber retention efficiency at the wastewater treatment plant would increase emissions to terrestrial environments, which suggests that microfibers should be removed before entering the wastewater system. In our model, full adoption of in-line filters in washing machines decreased annual synthetic microfiber emissions to natural environments by 79% to 0.5 kt and offered the largest reduction of all modeled scenarios.