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Feasibility Study and measuring the range of tourism investment areas of West Azerbaijan Province
2017
Taghilo, Ali Akbar | Aftab, Ahmad | Soltani, Naser
New models of development are based on tourism development and utilization from place – Space variations; therefore, identifying the capacity and capabilities of different geographical areas is in the center of development planning for fundraising and investment. In this context, the aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of investment in the tourism sector with emphasis on Western Azerbaijan province. The research method was descriptive - analytical. Expert choice and GIS software for data analysis has been used. The results show that, about 12.45 percent of tourism areas have international and national range and about 18.68 percent have national and local range. Also, about 17.45 percent of the tourism sector has a range of appropriate local investment. Experts say that effective factors of tourism investment range are different (Thiel index equal to 55/0), and areas which are contiguous with city infrastructure and municipal services have a border range.
Show more [+] Less [-]Drought Forecasting for Future Periods Using LARS-WG Model: The Case Study of Kermanshah City
2021
Heshmati, Sara | Ramezani Etedali, Hadi
The prediction of climactic changes is of great importance due to their destructive effects on aquatic, environmental, economic, and social resources. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to predict the climactic changes of Kermanshah city using micro-scale general atmospheric circulation models accessible in LARS-WG6 (GFDL-CM3, MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5) model in scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the 2020 to 2100 period based on the benchmark period of 1980-2010. In order to evaluate the data forecasted in LARS-WG model, the error rate of the observed and predicted data was addressed using R2, RMSE, MSE, and MAD criteria. The results showed that LARS-WG model had the needed capability to predict climactic data in future. In the secondary models, the MPI-ESM-MR model in scenario RCP4.5 showed a higher reliability rate compared to other secondary models evaluated in the study. Moreover, all models indicated increases in the average minimum and maximum temperature and forecasted changes in rainfall pattern in future periods in the studied area. Then, the SPI and De Martonne indices were calculated for all models. According to SPI index, all evaluated climactic models demonstrated that by the year 2100, the years with normal index would decrease while the years with dry conditions would increase. Moreover, based on De Martonne index, the GFDL model in RCP8.5 scenario estimated the climactic changes level more than other models, and predicted that dry and semi-dry years will be more than wet years. Contrarily, the MIRO model in RCP45 scenario acted more optimistically and predicted less climactic changes.
Show more [+] Less [-]Dispersion modeling drought caused by climate change in Iran using system dynamics
2017
Alizadeh, Shahmorad | Mohammadi, Hossein | Kardavani, Parviz
Drought changes for optimal operation management of water resources well is the sensible. That's why last round of very extensive research on modeling drought in the world and Iran is and using their water projects and has conducted numerous hydraulic. One of the goals dynamic systems modeling potential policies to improve system performance. Modeling SPI index as an indicator of the country's drought situation stations using radial neural network model for each station was done. Independent variables neural network, relative humidity, temperature and lack of objects, which were selected according to their impact on precipitation. SPI index is the dependent variable. In total period of 42 years calculated by SPI, 12-month and 348 standard score by calculating the SPI 24-month, 336 standard score is obtained for each station. At all stations, ETo values from January to July to December increased and then fell in July to its maximum level reached in all stations. The highest average monthly ETo values in Abadan and Ahvaz stations in July and 18/232 and 16/214 mm respectively happened.
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