The discussion of environmental change is currently one of the most important challenges which the international community faces. This issue comprises one of the most extensive scientific, economic, social, and even political debates at different global levels. Severe and sustained droughts have threatened many parts of the globe at different times and have led to rapid and profound changes at the economic and social development levels. The Middle East, especially Iran, has been no exception in this regard. The drying up of water resources, including lakes, is a prominent feature of these changes that has caused problems for the surrounding habitats. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the status of development indicators in 22 cities in Urmia Lake catchment area. In recent decades, water level has decreased significantly and drought level has increased in this lake. This study is an applied research project in terms of purpose and a descriptive-analytical one in terms of methodology. Data and information were collected from sources and documents of the Census Bureau for the years 2006 and 2016. Also, Vikor method and Moran's spatial autocorrelation index in Arc Gis software were used for the data analysis. The results of the statistical calculations showed that the development levels in the catchment area have transformed dramatically over the last 10 years, from the cluster distribution of 2006 to the dispersed distribution pattern of 2016. Moreover, the employment rate has declined and the unemployment rate has increased.Comparing the various statistics, one can clearly see the negative effects of the Lake water level decline on catchment area counties over the last 10 years. The gradual decline in the Lake water level (followed by a decrease in the employment rate and an increase in the unemployment rate) is the main reason for the imbalance in the development of the region.

The present study uses a structural analysis method to seek out the most likely scenarios for the development of Alborz province on the horizon of 2032. The required data and information for the research have been collected through a territorial development study (Survey Questionnaire) as well as expert interviews within the framework of the Delphi model. The statistical samples of the study were 30 employees of relevant institutions and urban-regional researchers. For data analysis, MICMAC software has been used to analyze the interactions of variables, and Morphol software has been used to compile scenarios. Finally, the results showed that the issue of water resources and drought, and the issue of the destruction of gardens of the province are due to the irregularity of construction. Similarly, the issue of industrial production, environmental pollution increase, and the burnout of factories in the horizon of 2032, with three replications of the catastrophe scenario in the developed scenarios are three serious and major threats for the development of Alborz province up to the horizon of 2032. Nonetheless, the capability of being at the neighborhood of Tehran province and the use of demographic, economic, and other capacities of Tehran province in all three scenarios were identified as the desirable scenarios. Also, in each of the three scenarios, the capabilities of the "big and strategic industries" and "province tourism" were identified as the most intermediate scenarios, which indicates the importance of these three capabilities in the development of the province in the horizon of 2032.