The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is a holistic concept used to understand the synergies and trade-offs of interdependent water, energy, and food resources. Despite its widespread use, this concept often overlooks environmental concerns. In addition, the lack of a systemic approach in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) has resulted in serious environmental degradation. For instance, the Aral Sea, situated at the terminus of the basin, is steadily shrinking, yet researchers studying the WEF nexus tend to overlook the upstream tributaries of the basin. This study aims to determine the extent to which research on the WEF nexus in the ASB in Central Asia has considered the environment through a systematic review of the literature published between 2012 and 2022. The results indicate that the number of WEF publications regarding the ASB has seen an upward trend, with a primary focus on the transboundary level and less research available on the local and national levels. This confirms the strong reliance of Central Asian states on one another for food, energy, and water resources. Furthermore, the results show that the majority of published studies either do not consider environmental concerns in their analyses at all or do so with little precision. Therefore, to achieve precise and sustainable outcomes, this study recommends the inclusion of environmental concerns along with basin-wide coverage in future WEF analyses. Finally, the WEF concept should be downscaled to the national and local levels in order to facilitate its implementation.

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is a holistic concept used to understand the synergies and trade-offs of interdependent water, energy, and food resources. Despite its widespread use, this concept often overlooks environmental concerns. In addition, the lack of a systemic approach in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) has resulted in serious environmental degradation. For instance, the Aral Sea, situated at the terminus of the basin, is steadily shrinking, yet researchers studying the WEF nexus tend to overlook the upstream tributaries of the basin. This study aims to determine the extent to which research on the WEF nexus in the ASB in Central Asia has considered the environment through a systematic review of the literature published between 2012 and 2022. The results indicate that the number of WEF publications regarding the ASB has seen an upward trend, with a primary focus on the transboundary level and less research available on the local and national levels. This confirms the strong reliance of Central Asian states on one another for food, energy, and water resources. Furthermore, the results show that the majority of published studies either do not consider environmental concerns in their analyses at all or do so with little precision. Therefore, to achieve precise and sustainable outcomes, this study recommends the inclusion of environmental concerns along with basin-wide coverage in future WEF analyses. Finally, the WEF concept should be downscaled to the national and local levels in order to facilitate its implementation.

The widespread uncertainty regarding future changes in climate, socioeconomic conditions, and population growth have increased interest in water-energy-food-ecology nexus-based frameworks in relation to the analysis of water resources. A challenge for modeling the water-energy-food-ecology nexus is how to reduce the multidimensional and codependent uncertainties and measure the complicated casual relationships effectively. We propose a methodological solution to the problem, and this solution is demonstrated in this case as an extension to the previous water resource optimization framework. We coupled the water-energy-food-ecology nexus into the Bayesian network, which provides a formal representation of the joint probabilistic behavior of the system, and the method was applied to water resource use analysis and management in the Syr Darya River basin, a transboundary and endorheic basin that has contributed to the Aral Sea ecological crisis as a result of unreasonable water use. The annual scale data of four periods, 1970–1980, 1980–1991, 1991–2005, and 2005–2015, were introduced into the Bayesian network. Before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the amount of water inflow into the Aral Sea was sensitive to increases in irrigation for agricultural development, increases in water storage of the upstream reservoirs and stochastic runoff. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the amount of water inflow into the Aral Sea was sensitive to the inefficient irrigation water use in the downstream areas of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and the water storage of the reservoir located upstream of Kyrgyzstan. The change resulted from unresolvable disputes between water use for power generation in the upstream area and irrigation in the downstream area. Comprehensive scenario analysis shows that, in the short term, it would be useful to improve the proportion of food crops, improve the efficiency of water use in relation to salt leaching and irrigation, and prevent drought damage. In the long term, based on the increased use of advanced drip irrigation technology from 50% to 80%, the annual inflow into the Aral Sea will increase significantly, reaching 6.4 km³ and 9.6 km³, respectively, and this technology is capable of ameliorating the ecological crisis within the basin.

Thoroughly understanding the security of water, energy and food (WEF) and the factors that influence them is essential for sustainable development management in any region. This study proposed a new analytical framework for WEF security evaluation in both individual sectors and the whole system, using the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) and four dimensions of security indicators: availability, self-sufficiency, productivity and accessibility. The internal relationships among the three sectors and the main factors influencing WEF security were analysed by Spearman’s rank correlation and radar graphs, respectively. The five countries in Central Asia (CA), which are experiencing WEF crises and facing great challenges in achieving their sustainable development goals (SDGs), were chosen as a case study in this paper. Our results showed that Kazakhstan attained the highest WEF security level, followed by Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; Tajikistan exhibited the lowest security level from 2000 to 2014. Three types of internal relationships among the three sectors were identified: synergies, trade-offs and unclassified. The unclassified relationship type accounted for the largest share of 54% in CA, suggesting great potential for synergetic improvement among the three sectors. Approaches for improving the country WEF security based on our research are as follows: Kazakhstan should prioritize food allocation and supply, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan should increase energy and food production and raise the supply level and usage efficiency of water and food, Turkmenistan should increase the available water resources and food production and improve the supply level and usage efficiency of water and energy, and Uzbekistan should both increase the available amount and enhance the WEF management performance.