The main aim of this studywas to model avocado production in Turkey for 2016-2025 period using 1988-2015years FAOSTAT data. Avocado production time series data for the 1988-2015period was found non-stationary. Stationarity was obtained after taking thefirst difference of the time series. Three Exponential Smoothing (Holt, Brownand Damped) methods were compared to model avocado production. Brownexponential smoothing model was the most appropriate forecasting model foravocado production. We forecasted that the avocado production in Turkey willshow increase from 2004 tons to 3156 tons for the 2016-2025 period. The resultsof this study could help policy makers to develop macro-level policies for foodsafety and more powerful strategies for better planning avocado production inTurkey for the future. | Bu çalışmanın başlıcaamacı, 1988-2015 yılları avokado üretim FAOSTAT verilerini kullanarak 2016-2025dönemi için Türkiye’deki avokado üretimini modellemektir. 1988-2015 dönemiavokado üretimine ait zaman serisi verilerinin durağan olmadıgı belirlenmiştir.Durağanlık, zaman serilerinin ilk derece farkının alınmasıyla sağlanmıştır.Avokado üretimini tahminlemede üç üstel düzleştirme (Holt, Brown ve Damped)yöntemi kıyaslanmıştır. Brown üstsel düzleştirme modeli, avokado üretiminitahminlemede en uygun yöntem olarak tanımlanmıştır. Türkiye’deki avokadoüretiminin 2016-2025 dönemi için 2004 tondan 3156 tona yükseleceği tespitedilmiştir. Bu araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçların, Türkiye’de gıda güvenliğiiçin makro seviyede politikaların geliştirilmesine ve avokado üretiminingelecekte daha iyi bir şekilde planlanmasına yardımcı olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Haraz River is one of the most important rivers in Iran, which has been faced with successive inappropriate land use changes and environmental degradation practices in recent decades. In this way, the impact of land use changes on stream flow generation, evaporation and hydrological processes of the Haraz basin has been studied. Land use maps for the years of 1988, 2000 and 2013 were prepared and assessed for any changes in land use using land change modeler and logistic regression methods. GEOMOD method was also used for accuracy tests of models. The calibration periods of 1988–2000, 1988–2013 and also Markov chain with hard prediction model were applied in order to predict the future land use for 2025. Besides, SWAT model was used to evaluate the watershed-scale impacts of land use change. Evaluating the calibration periods using GEOMOD method and some parameters showed a more accurate prediction for the period of 1988–2013 than the 1988–2000 period. Likewise, the results indicated that the rate of changes from 2013 to 2025 will be decreased in terms of forest and range lands (6751.05 and 168,09.01 ha, respectively) and will be increased in terms of residential areas, irrigated farming, gardens and bare lands up to 1567.2, 1405.68, 3039.38 and 174,05.55 ha, respectively. The assessment of model efficiency showed that the SWAT model has acceptable performance to simulate the flow discharge. Overall, the model outcomes indicated that land use changes lead to increase the average runoff in the study area. As a matter of fact, this issue has significant effects on water resources, economic and social situations, and hence, efficient strategies are needed for an integrated management in the Haraz basin.

Concerns about the long-run availability of metals have led to speculation that resources that have traditionally been available may become increasingly scarce in the future. To investigate this possibility in the case of nickel, we have built upon the history of nickel flows into use for the period 1988 to the present to develop plausible scenarios for the potential future supply and demand of nickel for the planet, and the associated energy and water use. As in other work, these scenarios are not predictions, but rather stories of possible futures that have the purpose of providing perspective and contemplating policy options. We report herein on our results for nickel supply and demand under four scenarios. We find that calculated nickel demand increases by 140–175% by 2025 and 215–350% by 2050, depending on the scenario. The scenario with the highest prospective demand is termed Equitability World, a scenario of transition to a world of more equitable values and institutions. From the perspective of the results for the four scenarios, we conclude that nickel demands could be met until at least 2050 given known geological nickel resources. The energy and water required for nickel production are anticipated to increase to as much as 0.3% and 0.035% of projected 2050 overall global energy and water demands.