Land use effects are considered among the main stressors on freshwater biodiversity, with up to 80% of land in Europe under intensive use. Here, we address the impact of arable and urban landscapes on taxon richness, Shannon–Wiener diversity, taxon rareness and taxonomic distinctness of eleven organism groups encompassing vertebrates, invertebrates and plants, occurring in five freshwater ecosystem types across Europe: rivers, floodplains, lakes, ponds and groundwater. In addition, nine geo-climatic descriptors (e.g. latitude, longitude, precipitation) were used to disentangle land use effects from those of natural drivers of biodiversity. Using a variance partitioning scheme based on boosted regression trees and generalised linear regression modelling, we sought: (i) to partition the unique, shared and unexplained variation in the metrics explained by both groups of descriptor variables, (ii) to quantify the contribution of each descriptor variable to biodiversity variation in the most parsimonious regression model and (iii) to identify interactions of land use and natural descriptors. The variation in biodiversity uniquely described by land use was consistently low across both ecosystem types and organism groups. In contrast, geo-climatic descriptors uniquely, and jointly with land use, explained significantly more variance in all 39 biodiversity metrics tested. Regression models revealed significant interactions between geo-climatic descriptors and land use for a third of the models, with interactions accounting for up to 17% of the model's deviance. However, no consistent patterns were observed related to the type of biodiversity metric and organism group considered. Subdividing data according to the strongest geo-climatic gradient in each dataset aimed to reduce the strength of natural descriptors relative to land use. Although data sub-setting can highlight land use effects on freshwater biodiversity, sub-setting our data often failed to produce stronger land use effects. There was no increase in spatial congruence in the subsets, suggesting that the observed land use effects were not dependent on the spatial extent of the subsets. Our results confirm significant joint effects of, and interactions between, land use and natural environmental descriptors on freshwater biodiversity, across ecosystem types and organism groups. This has implications for biodiversity monitoring. First, the combined analysis of anthropogenic and natural descriptors is a prerequisite for the analysis of human threats to biodiversity. Second, geo-climatically, but not necessarily geographically more homogeneous datasets can help unmask the role of anthropogenic descriptors. And third, whole community-based biodiversity metrics (including taxon richness) are not ideal indicators of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity at broad scales.

The Biodiversity Strategy of the European Union includes a target to “ensure no-net-loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services by 2020”. Many policy options can be envisioned to achieve such a no-net-loss target, mainly acting on land use and land management. To assess the effectiveness of such policies at a European Union (EU) scale, we simulated land use changes and their impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services indicators. We analysed a Business–as-Usual scenario, and three no-net-loss scenarios. The no-net-loss scenarios included measures that aim to reduce negative impacts of land use change on biodiversity and ecosystem services, by better implementation of existing biodiversity conservation measures (Scenario 1); and enhancement of existing measures (Scenario 2); and offsetting residual impacts on areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem service value (Scenario 3).Results show that none of the scenarios achieved overall no-net-loss. Compared to a Business-as-Usual scenario, the no-net-loss scenarios reduced the overall degree of land cover change at EU level, hence reducing impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services in large parts of the EU. The more comprehensive no-net-loss scenarios resulted in a gain of natural land cover. Moreover, natural areas became better connected, especially in peri-urban areas as a result of impact avoidance and offsetting. Richness of farmland bird species was projected to increase. Measures included in the no-net-loss scenarios had net positive effects on pollination and carbon sequestration, neutral effects on crop production, erosion prevention and flood regulation, and negative effects on nature-based recreation, compared to Business-as-Usual. In particular circumstances policy measures invoked displacement effects in land use allocation, reducing the effectiveness of the measures. This was primarily the case for flood regulation services throughout the EU.This study differentiates the potential effectiveness of a no-net-loss policy framework in three manners: (i) considering biodiversity and ecosystem services simultaneously; (ii) in the light of existing policies and land use pressures; and (iii) in different land use contexts across the EU. Taken together, we conclude that achieving no-net-loss for biodiversity and ecosystem services throughout the EU remains challenging given high land use demands. Nevertheless, in large parts of Europe there appears room for improvement for certain kinds of biodiversity and ecosystem services compared to Business-as-Usual, while still meeting other land use demands.

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward‐looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land‐use and land‐cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land‐use and land‐cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward‐looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.

CONTEXT: We address the issue of adapting landscapes for improved insect biodiversity conservation in a changing climate by assessing the importance of additive (main) and synergistic (interaction) effects of land cover and land use with climate. OBJECTIVES: We test the hypotheses that ant richness (species and genus), abundance and diversity would vary according to land cover and land use intensity but that these effects would vary according to climate. METHODS: We used a 1000 m elevation gradient in eastern Australia (as a proxy for a climate gradient) and sampled ant biodiversity along this gradient from sites with variable land cover and land use. RESULTS: Main effects revealed: higher ant richness (species and genus) and diversity with greater native woody plant canopy cover; and lower species richness with higher cultivation and grazing intensity, bare ground and exotic plant groundcover. Interaction effects revealed: both the positive effects of native plant canopy cover on ant species richness and abundance, and the negative effects of exotic plant groundcover on species richness were greatest at sites with warmer and drier climates. CONCLUSIONS: Impacts of climate change on insect biodiversity may be mitigated to some degree through landscape adaptation by increasing woody native vegetation cover and by reducing land use intensity, the cover of exotic vegetation and of bare ground. Evidence of synergistic effects suggests that landscape adaptation may be most effective in areas which are currently warmer and drier, or are projected to become so as a result of climate change.

Biodiversity declines have been driven by land-use changes in semi-natural grasslands worldwide. This is thought to be because threatened species are unable to compete with generalist species, which are better adapted to the new environments created by modern land-use management. Many studies have separately examined biodiversity declines resulting from land abandonment and intensified use, however few have examined their unified effects on biodiversity. In addition, we still do not fully understand the relative importance of decreasing habitat area in comparison to changes in land-use practice with regard to biodiversity. To clarify the roles of these interconnected variables, we compared the diversity of threatened and common herbivorous insects and plants among four land-use types (traditional, annual burning, annual mowing, and abandoned) during 2012 and 2013. Next, we examined whether a relationship exists between herbivorous insects and environmental variables (species richness of plants, as well as current and historical grassland areas). We showed that land-use changes (annual burning, annual mowing and/or land abandonment) diminished the diversity of threatened butterflies, orthopterans, and plants. Herbivorous insects were affected by land-use practices rather than grassland area. Our results suggest that to conserve threatened species in semi-natural grasslands, we should reintroduce traditional land-use practices in areas that currently experience modern practices, such as annual mowing and burning. The reintroduction of traditional management practices would allow for the recovery of plant biodiversity, thereby increasing herbivorous insect diversity.

Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future.

Background Primary biodiversity records (PBR) are essential in many areas of scientific research as they document the biodiversity through time and space. However, concerns about PBR quality and fitness-for-use have grown, especially as derived from taxonomical, geographical and sampling effort biases. Nonetheless, the temporal bias stemming from data ageing has received less attention. We examine the effect of changes in land use in the information currentness, and therefore data obsolescence, in biodiversity databases. Methods We created maps of land use changes for three periods (1956–1985, 1985–2000 and 2000–2012) at 5-kilometres resolution. For each cell we calculated the percentage of land use change within each period. We then overlaid distribution data about small mammals, and classified each data as ‘non-obsolete or ‘obsolete,’ depending on both the amount of land use changes in the cell, and whether changes occurred at or after the data sampling’s date. Results A total of 14,528 records out of the initial 59,677 turned out to be non-obsolete after taking into account the changes in the land uses in Navarra. These obsolete data existed in 115 of the 156 cells analysed. Furthermore, more than one half of the remaining cells holding non-obsolete records had not been visited at least for the last fifteen years. Conclusion Land use changes challenge the actual information obtainable from biodiversity datasets and therefore its potential uses. With the passage of time, one can expect a steady increase in the availability and use of biological records—but not without them becoming older and likely to be obsolete by land uses changes. Therefore, it becomes necessary to assess records’ obsolescence, as it may jeopardize the knowledge and perception of biodiversity patterns.

Monitoring the impacts of land-use practices is of particular importance with regard to biodiversity hotspots in developing countries. Here, conserving the high level of unique biodiversity is challenged by limited possibilities for data collection on site. Especially for such scenarios, assisting biodiversity assessments by remote sensing has proven useful. Remote sensing techniques can be applied to interpolate between biodiversity assessments taken in situ. Through this approach, estimates of biodiversity for entire landscapes can be produced, relating land-use intensity to biodiversity conditions. Such maps are a valuable basis for developing biodiversity conservation plans. Several approaches have been published so far to interpolate local biodiversity assessments in remote sensing data. In the following, a new approach is proposed. Instead of inferring biodiversity using environmental variables or the variability of spectral values, a hypothesis-based approach is applied. Empirical knowledge about biodiversity in relation to land-use is formalized and applied as ascription rules for image data. The method is exemplified for a large study site (over 67,000 km²) in central Chile, where forest industry heavily impacts plant diversity. The proposed approach yields a coefficient of correlation of 0.73 and produces a convincing estimate of regional biodiversity. The framework is broad enough to be applied to other study sites.

Land‐use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land‐use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land‐use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest‐dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land‐use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated.

AIM: Cultural landscapes and their biodiversity are threatened by land use changes and the abandonment of traditional farming techniques. Conceptualizing cultural landscapes as social–ecological systems can be useful to develop strategies for biodiversity conservation. First, this study aimed to develop a typology of social–ecological units based on land use patterns. Second, we sought to relate this typology to biophysical and socio‐demographic drivers as well as to biodiversity outcomes. LOCATION: Southern Transylvania (Romania). METHODS: We developed a typology of villages in Southern Transylvania based on land use data. We collected species richness data for plants, butterflies and birds, modelled local richness data for each village and related these values to the village typology. Also, we related village typology to biophysical and socio‐demographic variables. RESULTS: We identified four types of villages that showed distinct species richness patterns. Bird richness was highest in forest‐dominated and mixed‐land use villages; plant richness was highest in pasture‐dominated villages; and butterfly richness was high in arable‐dominated, mixed‐land use and pasture‐dominated villages. The four types of villages had distinct topographic characteristics and also differed in terms of ethnic composition, migration patterns and geographic location. Drawing on a combined understanding of social–ecological variables, different conservation actions could be prioritized for each of the four village types. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Applying social–ecological approaches has the potential to inform biodiversity conservation in cultural landscapes. Social–ecological typologies can improve our understanding of complex systems and provide useful input for the development of effective strategies for biodiversity conservation.