Internationally recognised guidelines for the assessment of risk posed by non-native organisms generally suggest that the assessment is disaggregated into a series of components each being scored and then the scores added or averaged to give the final result. Assigning odds instead of scores allows a more rigorous probabilistic treatment of the data, which can offer more effective discrimination between organisms. For each component of the assessment, the odds express how likely is the evidence if the organism poses a risk as a quarantine pest. According to Bayesian theory, the odds for all components are multiplied together and the product divided by itself plus one to give the probability that the organism poses a risk as a quarantine pest given the evidence available (assuming that the prior probability is neutral). A general illustration of the different distributions of outcomes obtained from score averaging and probability is provided. The approach is then applied to a set of risk assessments for 256 potential quarantine pests compiled for Tanzania in 1997. The greater discrimination between cases may help improve communication between risk assessment scientists and regulatory decision makers.

Eggs and larvae of Copitarsia spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are frequently intercepted on fresh commodities arriving in the United States from Mexico, Central America, and South America. Copitarsia spp. are not known to occur in the US and, thus, are considered actionable pests by the US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA, APHIS). Whenever the genus is detected in imported goods, shipments must be disinfested, destroyed, or returned to the country of origin. Inspections and interdictions might be unnecessary if Copitarsia spp. were unlikely to establish in the US or if consequences of Copitarsia establishment were trivial. Consequently, we prepared a qualitative pest risk assessment to characterize the degree of risk posed by the genus to US agricultural and natural ecosystems. Published literature was consulted to describe the biology and ecology of the genus. Trade statistics and interception records were summarized to identify pathways of introduction. With this information, experts assigned risk ratings to each of eleven elements identified by USDA, APHIS that pertained to the likelihood or consequence of exotic-pest establishment. The likelihood of Copitarsia spp. becoming established in the US was considered high, but confidence in this assessment was low. Similarly, consequences of Copitarsia establishment were rated high, but confidence in this assessment was moderate. Overall, the assessment revealed that Copitarsia pose a high degree of risk to the US and phytosanitary measures to exclude the pest seem warranted. However, additional research is needed to address critical data gaps and refine assessments of risk for individual species within the genus.

By the end of the 1980s, a broad consensus had developed that there were potential environmental risks of transgenic plants requiring assessment and that this assessment must be done on a case‐by‐case basis, taking into account the transgene, recipient organism, intended environment of release, and the frequency and scale of the intended introduction. Since 1990, there have been gradual but substantial changes in the environmental risk assessment process. In this review, we focus on changes in the assessment of risks associated with non‐target species and biodiversity, gene flow, and the evolution of resistance. Non‐target risk assessment now focuses on risks of transgenic plants to the intended local environment of release. Measurements of gene flow indicate that it occurs at higher rates than believed in the early 1990s, mathematical theory is beginning to clarify expectations of risks associated with gene flow, and management methods are being developed to reduce gene flow and possibly mitigate its effects. Insect pest resistance risks are now managed using a high‐dose/refuge or a refuge‐only strategy, and the present research focuses on monitoring for resistance and encouraging compliance to requirements. We synthesize previous models for tiering risk assessment and propose a general model for tiering. Future transgenic crops are likely to pose greater challenges for risk assessment, and meeting these challenges will be crucial in developing a scientifically coherent risk assessment framework. Scientific understanding of the factors affecting environmental risk is still nascent, and environmental scientists need to help improve environmental risk assessment.

This study investigated the diversity and risk status of the pests associated with pineapple fruit trade from Nigeria to the U.S.A. in a commodity-initiated Qualitative Pest Risk Assessment as required under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary agreement of member nations of the World Trade Organization. The study validated in the field as necessary, all fruit pests of pineapple, Ananas comosus in the southwest Nigeria that have potential to follow the risk pathway from the farm to the port of exit. Twenty four pests, comprising 18 species of insects, 5 fungi and 1 bacterium were identified.

"This study compares the effects of importing fresh Mexican Hass avocados into the United States under three scenarios for mitigating pest risks. The analysis finds that Scenario 1, adherence to the U.S. phytosanitary rule of November 2004—which removed all seasonal and geographic restrictions on Mexican avocados, while maintaining existing compliance procedures in Mexico—leads to low pest risks for U.S. producers and an estimated annual U.S. welfare gain of $72 million. In Scenario 2, if compliance measures specific to fruit fly control are eliminated along with seasonal and geographic restrictions, pest risks for U.S. producers remain low and there is an additional gain in net U.S. welfare of $1.7 million. Results for Scenario 3, which eliminates all control measures in Mexico, depends on the level of pest-risk estimated. With average risk, there is a gain in net U.S. welfare of about $8.5 million compared with eliminating only seasonal and geographic restrictions, but U.S. producers incur significant pest control costs. With maximum pest-risk estimates, the net gain in U.S. welfare is $16.2 million less than if only geographic and seasonal restrictions are eliminated, with larger pest control costs for U.S. producers and lower consumer welfare gains due to pest-related losses of U.S. avocados." -- USDA Abstract | Non-PR | IFPRI-5 | MTID

1 The many thousands of potential invasive species pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity world‐wide. In this study we propose that assemblages of well‐known global invasive pest species, irrespective of whether they arise by anthropogenic means, are non‐random species groupings that contain hidden predictive information. Such information can assist the identification and prioritization of species that have the potential to pose an invasive threat in regions where they are not normally found. 2 Data comprising the presence and absence of 844 insect pest species recorded over 459 geographical regions world‐wide were analysed using a self‐organizing map (SOM), a well‐known artificial neural network algorithm. The SOM analysis classified the high dimensional data into two‐dimensional space such that geographical areas that had similar pest species assemblages were organized as neighbours on a map or grid. 3 The SOM analysis allowed each species to be ranked in terms of its risk of invasion in each area based on the strength of its association with the assemblage that was characteristic for each geographical region. A risk map for example species was produced to illustrate how such a map can be compared with the species’ actual distribution and used with other information, such as the species’ biotic characteristics and interactions with the abiotic environment, to improve pest risk assessments further. 4 Synthesis and applications. This study presents a new approach to the identification of potentially high‐risk invasive pest species based on the hypothesis that global insect pest assemblages are non‐random species groupings that can be subjected to traditional community analysis. A well‐known data mining and knowledge discovery method for high dimensional data, SOM, was used to determine pest species assemblages for global regions. Species were ranked according to their potential for establishment based on their strength of association with the species assemblage that characterizes a particular region. Such an analysis can then be used to support additional risk assessment of potential invasive species, giving invasive species researchers, conservation managers, quarantine and biosecurity scientists a means for prioritizing species as candidates for further research.

This study compares the effects of importing fresh Mexican Hass avocados into the United States under three scenarios for mitigating pest risks. The analysis finds that Scenario 1, adherence to the U.S. phytosanitary rule of November 2004—which removed all seasonal and geographic restrictions on Mexican avocados, while maintaining existing compliance procedures in Mexico—leads to low pest risks for U.S. producers and an estimated annual U.S. welfare gain of $72 million. In Scenario 2, if compliance measures specific to fruit fly control are eliminated along with seasonal and geographic restrictions, pest risks for U.S. producers remain low and there is an additional gain in net U.S. welfare of $1.7 million. Results for Scenario 3, which eliminates all control measures in Mexico, depends on the level of pest-risk estimated. With average risk, there is a gain in net U.S. welfare of about $8.5 million compared with eliminating only seasonal and geographic restrictions, but U.S. producers incur significant pest control costs. With maximum pest-risk estimates, the net gain in U.S. welfare is $16.2 million less than if only geographic and seasonal restrictions are eliminated, with larger pest control costs for U.S. producers and lower consumer welfare gains due to pest-related losses of U.S. avocados.

This paper presents sequential sampling plans for classifying the pest status of Lasioderma serricorne (F.) based on complete counts from insects caught in sex pheromone traps in a cigarette factory. The sampling plan used 26 pheromone traps. As the adult population follows the negative binomial distribution, a sequential sampling plan was developed using the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT). Iwao's confidence interval method was also employed to analyse results. The sampling plan was implemented to assist management decision-making based on the economic threshold of 5 insects/trap/week. The results show that, using SPRT or Iwao's methods, managers can make decisions using only seven and six traps, respectively, with a minimum risk of incorrect assessment.

Pesticides pose a difficult problem for policy makers as society generally seeks to reduce any adverse impacts of their use, while industry claims they are important contributors to economic success. Attempts to direct policy according to scientific findings are hampered by the multidimensionality of the potential impacts of pesticides which may affect consumers, operators, wildlife and the environment. Pesticide risk indices seek to reduce these multidimensional impacts into a single dimension and have been increasingly used to understand variation in the hazard posed by pesticides at both field and regional level. This study uses one such risk index, the environmental impact quotient (EIQ), to estimate the hazard posed by pesticide usage from 1991 to 2003 on several vegetable crops grown in the UK. Results are reported for the EIQ and for the environmental impact (EI) for brassicas, peas, beans, onions, leeks, lettuce and endives. The EIQ is a dimensionless estimate of the toxicity of a product, while the EI, which combines the EIQ with data on actual usage, estimates the overall hazard of the use of a product. The exact trends in EIQ and EI varied with crop over the period 1991-2003, but overall the EIQ decreased by 19% and the EI decreased by 34%. However, the mean EI per hectare decreased by only 3%. This suggests that some of the observed reduction in EI at the national level may be related more to decrease in crop area than changes in pesticide use and management. If these observed losses in crop area are being replaced by vegetable imports from overseas, then this raises the possibility that the UK is effectively exporting any problems related to pesticide use. The ethics of this remain unclear.

The Ecological Society of America has evaluated current U.S. national policies and practices on biological invasions in light of current scientific knowledge. Invasions by harmful nonnative species are increasing in number and area affected; the damages to ecosystems, economic activity, and human welfare are accumulating. Without improved strategies based on recent scientific advances and increased investments to counter invasions, harm from invasive species is likely to accelerate. Federal leadership, with the cooperation of state and local governments, is required to increase the effectiveness of prevention of invasions, detect and respond quickly to new potentially harmful invasions, control and slow the spread of existing invasions, and provide a national center to ensure that these efforts are coordinated and cost effective. Specifically, the Ecological Society of America recommends that the federal government take the following six actions: (1) Use new information and practices to better manage commercial and other pathways to reduce the transport and release of potentially harmful species; (2) Adopt more quantitative procedures for risk analysis and apply them to every species proposed for importation into the country; (3) Use new cost‐effective diagnostic technologies to increase active surveillance and sharing of information about invasive species so that responses to new invasions can be more rapid and effective; (4) Create new legal authority and provide emergency funding to support rapid responses to emerging invasions; (5) Provide funding and incentives for cost‐effective programs to slow the spread of existing invasive species in order to protect still uninvaded ecosystems, social and industrial infrastructure, and human welfare; and (6) Establish a National Center for Invasive Species Management (under the existing National Invasive Species Council) to coordinate and lead improvements in federal, state, and international policies on invasive species. Recent scientific and technical advances provide a sound basis for more cost‐effective national responses to invasive species. Greater investments in improved technology and management practices would be more than repaid by reduced damages from current and future invasive species. The Ecological Society of America is committed to assist all levels of government and provide scientific advice to improve all aspects of invasive‐species management.