The survey showed that quarantine officers take care of the prevention of the entry of exotic pest through vigilance in reviewing legal documents of incoming plant and plant products and monitoring/detection and control when needed. Fumigation, cold treatment, burning/destruction or sending back the consignment to its country of origin are the present exotic pest management practices. Indigenous pests are also their concern especially the containment or prevention of the spread of new pests such as rice bugs, mango pulp weevil and others. As such they monitor vessels like ships, bancas, trucks and other vehicles that come from areas infested with new pest. The survey also revealed the following additional needs: Rest information and communication technology, updating of pest detection techniques, pest specimen for quick reference, strengthening of pest identification capability risk assessment know how and management options both for exotics, and new record of indigenous pest and pest outbreaks of exotic that have gained entry such as L. huidobrensis on white potato and L. trifolii on onion. Accomplishments for the last twelve months were presented and discussed.

An assessment of the likelihood and extent of spread is an integral part of a pest risk analysis for quarantine measures. However, few tools - if any - are available to risk assessors to make an assessment of the spread as a dynamic process in space at the continental scale. Within the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE, we explored avenues for spread modelling and link models of spread to maps of host distribution, climate, and potential economic impacts.Five models for spread were considered: (1) logistic temporal increase of the invaded area following a point introduction; (2) radial range expansion at a constant rate following a point introduction; (3) logistic temporal increase of pest density following a blanket introduction of the invasive alien all across the area of potential establishment in Europe; (4) spatio-temporal population growth and dispersal model constructed by combining local logistic population growth of model 3 with propagule dispersal according to a flexible spatial probability model.These models are generic and simple, to enable rapid parameterization with limited data, enabling scenario analyses in the context of rapid appraisals of pest risk. We developed the models considering Europe as the PRA area. Different models enable alternative assumptions and points of view of the risk assessor to be entered into the assessment process. All models consider the fundamental niche of the invasive species, based on climate suitability and presence of hosts. None of the models is considered a priori better than alternatives. The suite of models provides a more complete picture of invasion consequences than any single model would do.Case studies are provided to illustrate the parameterization process and highlight comparative strengths and weaknesses of the five models. A formal test of model performance against invasion data has not yet been conducted here, but is proposed as a valuable objective for future research. We engage with the community of pest risk assessors in Europe to help risk assessors develop familiarity with the new tools and collect user feedback for identifying future development needs.

An assessment of the likelihood and extent of spread is an integral part of a pest risk analysis for quarantine measures. However, few tools - if any - are available to risk assessors to make an assessment of the spread as a dynamic process in space at the continental scale. Within the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE, we explored avenues for spread modelling and link models of spread to maps of host distribution, climate, and potential economic impacts.Five models for spread were considered: (1) logistic temporal increase of the invaded area following a point introduction; (2) radial range expansion at a constant rate following a point introduction; (3) logistic temporal increase of pest density following a blanket introduction of the invasive alien all across the area of potential establishment in Europe; (4) spatio-temporal population growth and dispersal model constructed by combining local logistic population growth of model 3 with propagule dispersal according to a flexible spatial probability model.These models are generic and simple, to enable rapid parameterization with limited data, enabling scenario analyses in the context of rapid appraisals of pest risk. We developed the models considering Europe as the PRA area. Different models enable alternative assumptions and points of view of the risk assessor to be entered into the assessment process. All models consider the fundamental niche of the invasive species, based on climate suitability and presence of hosts. None of the models is considered a priori better than alternatives. The suite of models provides a more complete picture of invasion consequences than any single model would do.Case studies are provided to illustrate the parameterization process and highlight comparative strengths and weaknesses of the five models. A formal test of model performance against invasion data has not yet been conducted here, but is proposed as a valuable objective for future research. We engage with the community of pest risk assessors in Europe to help risk assessors develop familiarity with the new tools and collect user feedback for identifying future development needs.

Samenvatting van de sessie 'a suite of simple models to support quantitative assessment of spread and impact in pest risk analysis' op de KNPV-voorjaarsvergadering, 8 juni 2011.

Samenvatting van de sessie 'a suite of simple models to support quantitative assessment of spread and impact in pest risk analysis' op de KNPV-voorjaarsvergadering, 8 juni 2011.

It is assumed that climate change will promote pest invasions and their establishment in new regions. We have updated the list of current alien invertebrate pest species in Finland and produced a list of potential new alien pests using a self-organizing map (SOM) that ranks species in terms of their risk of entry into Finland. The 76 pest species recorded included 66 insects, 5 nematodes, 2 mites and 3 slugs. Nearly half of the alien species appeared to have invaded Finland during the last 48 years. The SOM analysis is considered a viable tool for identification of potentially high-risk invasive pests from among the multitude of potential alien invaders, and represents a useful complement to local expert knowledge-based risk assessment of potentially invasive pests. Along with the comparisons with databases of current and potential pest species, SOM analysis suggests that in the changing climate, the habitats at greatest risk from exotic pests in Finland are horticultural: orchards, ornamental hardy-nursery stocks, landscape and ornamental tree nurseries, and greenhouses.

Solanum elaeagnifolium Cav., originating from the Americas, has been unintentionally introduced in all the other continents as a contaminant of commodities, and is considered one of the most invasive plants worldwide. In the Euro-Mediterranean area, it is a huge threat in North African countries. It is also present in European Mediterranean countries (France, Greece, Italy and Spain), but still has a limited distribution. Through a logical sequence of questions, pest risk analysis (PRA) assessed the probability of S. elaeagnifolium entering, establishing, spreading and having negative impacts in European and Mediterranean countries. As this assessment revealed that the entry of the pest would result in an unacceptable risk, pest risk management options were selected to prevent the introduction of the plant. Preventive measures on plants or plant products traded internationally may directly or indirectly affect international trade. According to international treaties, PRA is a technical justification of such international preventive measures.

Het fytosanitair beleid kan hervormd worden door te toetsen of ondernemers invasieve plantenziekten en -plagen willen én kunnen beheersen. Besmetting van plantaardige producten met invasieve plantenziekten leidt tot welvaartverlies door marktfalen. Marktfalen komt door het optreden van externe effecten en informatie-asymmetrie in de markt voor plantaardige producten. De overheid is verantwoordelijk voor het corrigeren van dit marktfalen als publieke belangen in het geding zijn. Zij kan daarbij meer dan nu gebeurt gebruik maken van ondernemers. Of dit mogelijk is, hangt af van drie factoren die getoetst worden in een bestuurskundig kader: 1. Zijn de ondernemers op de hoogte van de risico's die gepaard gaan met de handel in plantaardige producten?; 2. Hebben zij belang bij het verminderen van het risico?; 3. Zijn zij in staat het risico te verminderen? Wanneer deze drie vragen met ja beantwoord worden, kan de overheid meer verantwoordelijkheid bij het bedrijfsleven leggen.

Turkey is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of table grapes. Growing social concerns over excessive pesticide use have led to farming to move from conventional to organic practices. Table grapes were collected from 99 different farms in three Aegean regions. Pesticide residues were only detected in farms using conventional agriculture practices while no pesticides were detected in grapes from farms using organic or integrated pest management. A risk assessment model indicated that lambda-cyhalothrin posed the most significant risk at conventional farms.

Biosecurity relies on ecological risk assessment to evaluate alternative technologies and regulations, and to design adaptive management strategies and mitigations. In familiar modes of risk assessment, such as that performed in the insurance industry, vast amounts of appropriate data are available to precisely bound risks. In contrast, biosecurity issues revolve around novel pests and technologies that have little or no historic precedents. Therefore, a central feature of most ecological threats is the absence of essential data, yet risk assessment must be done despite uncertainty. We believe that scientists investigating biosecurity risks should use simple models that are designed to give an understanding of the problems at hand, and should focus on assessment rather than prediction. Although they may not make detailed quantitative predictions, simple models can nonetheless be used to discover and frame the threats, and provide qualitative comparisons among strategies to manage them. Simple models can be used like verbal arguments by experts, but they are less prone to confusion and mistakes. We illustrate the value of simple models using the example of the evolution of insect pest resistance to transgenic, insecticidal crops.