Understanding how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of crop pests is fundamental for the development and the implementation of pest management strategies. Here we present and apply a modelling framework assessing the non-linear physiological responses of the lifehistory strategies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, Wiedemann) to temperature. The model is used to explore how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of this pest in Europe. We estimated the change in the distribution, abundance and activity of this species under current (year 2020) and future (years 2030 and 2050) climatic scenarios. The effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance and activity of C. capitata are heterogeneous both in time and in space. A northward expansion of the species, an increase in the altitudinal limit marking the presence of the species, and an overall increase in population abundance is expected in areas that might become more suitable under a changing climate. On the contrary, stable or reduced population abundances can be expected in areas where climate change leads to equally suitable or less suitable conditions. This heterogeneity reflects the contribution of both spatial variability in the predicted climatic patterns and non-linearity in the responses of the species’ life-history strategies to temperature.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’). This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by 1‐ to 3‐year‐old dormant grafted plants and rootstocks of Malus domestica imported from Ukraine, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by Ukraine. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two quarantine pests (Lopholeucaspis japonica and Tobacco ringspot virus), one protected zone quarantine pest (Erwinia amylovora) and one non‐regulated pest (Eotetranychus prunicola) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For Erwinia amylovora, for which special requirements are specified in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072, Annex X, item 9, the fulfilment of these requirements was evaluated. Based on the information provided in the dossier, the specific requirements for Erwinia amylovora were not met. For the three remaining selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Ukraine were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For the selected pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Eotetranychus prunicola being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9,912 and 10,000 bundles (consisting of 50 plants each) per 10,000 would be free from Eotetranychus prunicola.

BACKGROUND: Growth in insect pest populations poses a significant threat to ecosystem functions and services, societal development, and food security in alpine regions under climate change. Risk assessments are important prioritization tools for pest management, which must be used to study insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under global warming. We used species distribution modeling to simulate the current and future distribution probabilities of 58 insect pest species in the Qinghai Province, China, based on a comprehensive field investigation. Subsequently, general linear modeling was used to explore the relationship between the distribution probability of these species and the damage caused by them. Finally, we assessed the ecological risk of insect pest expansion across different alpine ecosystems under climate change. RESULTS: Climate change could increase the distribution probabilities of insect pest species across different alpine ecosystems. However, the presence of insect pest species may not correspond to the damage occurrence in alpine ecosystems based on percent leaf loss, amount of stunting, and seedling death of their host species. Significant positive relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence were found for several of the examined insect pest species. Insect pest expansion is likely to increase extensively in alpine ecosystems under increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission scenarios. CONCLUSION: The relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence should be considered in species distribution modeling for risk assessment of insect pest expansion under climate change. Our study could improve the effectiveness of risk assessment of insect pest expansion under changing climate conditions. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry

The serious damages of Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) in Euro-Mediterranean countries (Italy, France, Spain) raise concerns for the Near East and North Africa (NENA). Therefore, a study was performed to: a) assess the risk of Xf entry, establishment and spread in target NENA countries (viz. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia); b) analyse risk perception and preparedness level among agri-food chain stakeholders; c) estimate potential socio-economic impacts for olives, grapes and citrus. Pest risk appraisal suggests that Morocco, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria are the most exposed to Xf risk; other target NENA countries, except Algeria, have intermediate risk. Risk perception analysis shows that governance efficacy and practices application can be improved by involving stakeholders and raising their awareness. Socio-economic impact assessment indicates declining yields, production, profitability, export, employment, and increasing import, with the highest impacts relating to olives, then citrus and grapes. The study suggests that the expected socioeconomic impacts are unacceptable and require urgent action against Xf at national and regional levels.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation EU/2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by bare rooted and potted plants of Nerium oleander that are imported from Turkey, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the Turkish NPPO. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria. One species, the EU non‐regulated pest Phenacoccus solenopsis, fulfilled all relevant criteria and was selected for further evaluation. For this pest, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Turkey were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For this pest, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,719 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free of P. solenopsis.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country, this Scientific Opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: dormant, free of leaves, bare‐rooted grafted plants and rootstocks of Juglans regia imported from Moldova. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. The EU‐quarantine pest Xiphinema rivesi non‐EU populations fulfilled these criteria and hence was selected for further evaluation. For this pest, the risk mitigation measures described in the technical dossier from Moldova were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. An expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom for this pest taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that 9,959 or more bare‐rooted plants per 10,000 will be free from X. rivesi.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. Momordica fruits originating from countries where Thrips palmi is known to occur qualify as high‐risk plants. This Scientific Opinion covers the introduction risk for T. palmi posed by fruits of Momordica charantia L. imported from Thailand, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the Department of Agriculture of Thailand. The risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Thailand were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. An expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the potential pest pressure in the field, the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest in the field and in the packing house, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. For T. palmi on M. charantia fruits from Thailand, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom following the evaluation of the risk mitigation measures acting on T. palmi, including any uncertainties. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty that between 9,496 and 10,000 M. charantia fruits/10,000 will be free from T. palmi.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. M. charantia fruits originating from countries where Thrips palmi is known to occur qualify as high‐risk plants. This Scientific Opinion covers the introduction risk for T. palmi posed by fruits of Momordica charantia L. imported from Suriname, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the National Plant Protection Organization of Suriname. The risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Suriname were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. An expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the potential pest pressure in the field, the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest in the field and in the packinghouse, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. For T. palmi on M. charantia fruits from Suriname, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom following the evaluation of the risk mitigation measures acting on T. palmi, including any uncertainties. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty that between 8,652 and 10,000 M. charantia fruits per 10,000 will be free from T. palmi.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by tubers of Ullucus tuberosus imported from Peru, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by Peru. The relevance of an EU quarantine pest for this opinion was based on evidence that: (i) the pest is present in Peru, (ii) U. tuberosus is a host of the pest and (iii) the pest can be associated with the commodity. The relevance of any other pest, not regulated in the EU, was based on evidence that: (i) the pest is present in Peru (ii) the pest is absent in the EU; (iii) U. tuberosus is a host of the pest; (iv) the pest can be associated with the commodity and (v) the pest may have an impact and can pose a potential risk for the EU territory. There are five pests i.e. one insect (Amathynetoides nitidiventris), two nematodes (Atalodera andina and Nacobbus aberrans) and two viruses (the Andean potato latent virus (APLV) and the potato virus T (PVT)) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For the five pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Peru were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For each of the five pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with PVT being the pest most frequently expected on the imported commodities. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,157 and 10,000 tubers out of 10,000 would be free of PVT.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation EU/2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by bare rooted and potted plants of Robinia pseudoacacia that are imported from Turkey, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the Turkish NPPO. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria. Three species, the EU‐quarantine pests Anoplophora chinensis and Lopholeucapsis japonica, and the EU non‐regulated pest Pochazia shantungensis fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Turkey were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with L. japonica being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,521 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free of L. japonica.