Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High‐risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by potted plants (2–4 years old) of specified Lonicera species produced in nurseries and that are imported from Turkey, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the NPPO of Turkey. The relevance of any pest for this Opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria listed in Section 4.1. Three species, the EU‐quarantine pests Lopholeucaspis japonica and Meloidogyne chitwoodi and the protected zone quarantine pest Bemisia tabaci, fulfilled these criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Turkey were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with B. tabaci on evergreen species of Lonicera spp. being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,293 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free of B. tabaci.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Prunus domestica grafted on Prunus cerasifera imported from Ukraine, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by Ukraine. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. One quarantine pest (Lopholeucaspis japonica), two protected zone quarantine pests (Erwinia amylovora and Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni) and one non‐regulated pest (Eotetranychus prunicola) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For these four pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Ukraine were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For the selected pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9,870 and 10,000 bundles (consisting of 10 plants each) per 10,000 would be free from Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni.

Understanding how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of crop pests is fundamental for the development and the implementation of pest management strategies. Here we present and apply a modelling framework assessing the non-linear physiological responses of the lifehistory strategies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, Wiedemann) to temperature. The model is used to explore how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of this pest in Europe. We estimated the change in the distribution, abundance and activity of this species under current (year 2020) and future (years 2030 and 2050) climatic scenarios. The effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance and activity of C. capitata are heterogeneous both in time and in space. A northward expansion of the species, an increase in the altitudinal limit marking the presence of the species, and an overall increase in population abundance is expected in areas that might become more suitable under a changing climate. On the contrary, stable or reduced population abundances can be expected in areas where climate change leads to equally suitable or less suitable conditions. This heterogeneity reflects the contribution of both spatial variability in the predicted climatic patterns and non-linearity in the responses of the species’ life-history strategies to temperature.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High‐risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by potted plants (2–3 years old) of Berberis thunbergii produced in nurseries and imported into the EU from Turkey, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the NPPO of Turkey. The relevance of any pest for this Opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria. Two species, the EU‐quarantine pest Bemisia tabaci and the non‐regulated pest Malacosoma parallela, fulfilled the relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Turkey were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with B. tabaci being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,928 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free of B. tabaci. The role of Berberis thunbergii as possible host of Puccinia spp. is discussed in the body of the opinion.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by evergreen 3‐ to 20‐year‐old topiary plants of Ligustrum delavayanum grafted on L. japonicum in pots imported from the UK, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this Scientific Opinion. One EU quarantine pest (Scirtothrips dorsalis), one EU protected zone quarantine pest [(Bemisia tabaci (European populations)] and two EU non‐regulated pests (Diaprepes abbreviatus and Epiphyas postvittana) fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures described in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. While the estimated degree of pest freedom varied among pests, E. postvittana was the pest most frequently expected on the commodity. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that 9,724 or more living sculptures per 10,000 would be free from E. postvittana.

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by dormant grafted plants, rootstocks, budwood and scions of Malus domestica imported from Turkey, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by Turkey. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Three quarantine pests (Anoplophora chinensis, Lopholeucaspis japonica and tomato ringspot virus), one protected zone quarantine pest (Erwinia amylovora) and 12 non‐regulated pests (Calepitrimerus baileyi, Cenopalpus irani, Cicadatra persica, Didesmococcus unifascuiatus, Diplodia bulgarica, Euzophera semifuneralis, Hoplolaimus galeatus, Maconellicoccus hirsutus, Malacosoma parallela, Pochazia shantungensis, Pratylenchus loosi, Russellaspis pustulans and Pyrolachnus pyri) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For E. amylovora, special requirements are specified in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Based on the information provided in the dossier, the specific requirements for E. amylovora were not met. For Anoplophora chinensis, special measures are specified in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2012/138. The exporting country does meet the requirement for a certificate regarding plants for planting that originate from Turkish provinces other than Istanbul. For the 14 remaining selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Turkey were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For the selected pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with D. bulgarica being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9,863 and 10,000 bundles (consisting of 10 or 25 plants each) per 10,000 would be free from D. bulgarica.

Abstract EFSA pest categorisations and pest risk assessments include the assessment of the potential establishment of plant pests. Together with the presence of host plants, climate suitability analysis is an important element to analyse the likelihood of potential establishment of a pest in an area. One of the main approaches used in EFSA plant health risk assessment is the analysis based on climate classifications i.e. evidencing the occurrence of climates enhancing pest development and persistence in a specific area. SCAN‐Clim is a tool designed to support climate suitability analysis based on climate classifications. The current version is the first prototype of the tool, developed in the R language, currently used to support EFSA climate suitability analysis for pest categorisation and for quantitative pest risk assessment. Tested on over 34 EFSA works, SCAN‐Clim significantly improved the speed of climate suitability maps generation guaranteeing a standardised map format and providing documentation on input/outputs. Further improvements will include the development of an interactive web app accessible through the EFSA R4EU Portal (expected to be delivered in 2022).

Abstract The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver a scientific opinion on the risk posed by bonsai plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora grafted on Pinus thunbergii taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by China. All pests associated with P. parviflora and/or P. thunbergii were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this Scientific Opinion. Forty‐three pests that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For 24 pests that are not quarantine in the EU, the risk mitigation measures described in the technical dossier from China were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. While the estimated degree of pest freedom varied among pests, Setoptus parviflorae was the pest most frequently expected on the commodity. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that 9,114 or more bonsai plants per 10,000 will be free from Setoptus parviflorae. For 19 pests that are quarantine in the EU, the implementation of specific measures defined in point 30 and 31 of Annex VII of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072 was evaluated. The requirements of point 31 are met, whereas those of point 30 are not completely fulfilled.

Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest risk assessment of Amyelois transitella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the navel orangeworm, for the EU. The quantitative assessment considered two scenarios: (i) current practices and (ii) a requirement for chilled transport. The assessment focused on pathways of introduction, climatic conditions and cultivation of hosts allowing establishment, spread and impact. A. transitella is a common pest of almonds, pistachios and walnuts in California, which is the main source for these nuts imported into the EU. Based on size of the trade and infestation at origin, importation of walnuts and almonds from the USA was identified as the most important pathways for entry of A. transitella. Using expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) and pathway modelling, a median estimate of 2,630 infested nuts is expected to enter the EU each year over the next 5 years (90% certainty range (CR) from 338 to 26,000 infested nuts per year). However, due to estimated small likelihoods of transfer to a host, mating upon transfer and survival of founder populations, the number of populations that establish was estimated to be 0.000698 year−1 (median, 90% CR: 0.0000126–0.0364 year−1). Accordingly, the expected period between founding events is 1,430 years (median, 90% CR: 27.5–79,400 year). The likelihood of entry resulting in establishment is therefore considered very small. However, this estimate has high uncertainty, mainly concerning the processes of transfer of the insect to hosts and the establishment of founder populations by those that successfully transfer. Climate matching and CLIMEX modelling indicate that conditions are most suitable for establishment in the southern EU, especially around the Mediterranean basin. The median rate of natural spread was estimated to be 5.6 km/year (median, 90% CR 0.8–19.3 km/year), after an initial lag period of 3.1 year (mean, 90% CR 1.7–6.2 year) following the establishment of a founder population. If A. transitella did establish, estimated median yield losses in nuts were estimated to be in the order of 1–2% depending on the nut species and production system. A scenario requiring imports of nuts to be transported under chilled conditions was shown to provide potential to further reduce the likelihood of entry.

International audience