Effects of exports of agricultural products on the balances of international payments of Thailand
Prajoed Sinsup | Sri-on Somboonsup (Kasetsart Univ., Bangkok (Thailand). Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. Dept. of Economics)
The objective of this study was to find the impacts of agricultural exports on the balance of payments. Time series data of 1970-1981 had been utilized for the study. It was found that the principal agricultural products exported during 1970-1981 were rice, rubber, maize, cassava, mungbean and frozen shrimp. Though the value of these agricultural exports was increasing during the period, the proportion of their value to the total value of exports showed a decreasing trend. The role of agricultural products as the primary earner of foreign exchange, it was believed, would remain for sometime, but in an uncertain prospect. Uncertainty of the role was due mainly to the instability of the volume, value and price of agricultural exports. By using the Macbean method, instability index of all six agricultural products had been computed. It was found that rice had the highest instability index, while the frozen shrimp had the lowest instability index. The instability of maize, cassava, shrimp resulted from a change in demand. The Harrod-Domar model was also used to measure the impacts of agricultural exports in the balance of payment. It was found that export of agricultural products had contributed favorably to the country's balance of payment. This was due from the surplus of the balance of trade in agricultural products that had occurred annually. The contribution of agricultural exports on the balance of trade could increase through an increase in both distribution of production and export. Factors that were crucial to the demand for export were domestic price, exchange rate and time. The first two factors had an opposite relationship with the demand for agricultural export
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