Comparative study of forecasting techniques on rice, cassava and mungbean farm gate prices
1991
Nongnooch Deetae
In this study, the monthly farm gate prices were secondary data during 1985-1990 collected from the Office of Agricultural Economics. The collected data were analysed for motion and trend to formulate forecasting model. Sum squares error of forecasting was utilized to measure the accuracy of forecasting monthly farm gate prices. The decomposition method showed the third degree polynomial equations. For Box and Jenkins method, using first difference, showed stationary time series with the appropriate monthly farm gate price patterns of MA(1, 1), AR(2, 1), AR(1,1) and ARIMA(1, 1, 1) for 5 % nonglutinous paddy, long-grain glutinous paddy, cassava and mixed shiny skin mungbean respectively. Comparing decomposition and Box and Jenkins methods, the first was suitable for forecasting long-grain glutinous paddy and cassava monthly farm gate prices whereas the second was suitable for 5 % nonglutinous and mixed shiny skin mungbean.
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