Import demand and policy analysis of wheat in Thailand
1992
Nareenat Roonphai
Main objectives of this study are to analyze factors influencing wheat import demand and wheat consumption and to analyse the effect of tariff policy on the production, consumption, and import of wheat. The methodology used in this study is based on quantitative analysis, using multiple regression technique. The study found that, when the average tariff rate of whole wheat decreased from 1,427 to 1,350 baht/ton, the import of whole wheat increased by 17.94 percent. When the average tariff rate for wheat flour increased from 1,733 to 3,850 baht/ton, a 72.52 percent decrease in wheat flour import was estimated. An increase in the tariff rate from 1,450 to 1,633 baht/ton would cause an estimated decrease in wheat consumption of 9.65 percent. If the tariff rate on wheat imports was increased from 1,455 to 1,633 baht/ton, wheat production would increase by 0.99 percent. Generally, the tariff policy for whole wheat and wheat flour has not protected wheat production in Thailand. Since the present tariffs are ineffective in stimulating wheat production, a more appropriate policy should be designed which flavors cheaper imports of whole wheat and saves foreign exchange. The wheat milling industry should also be encouraged to expand production of prime wheat products.
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