Modelling of the climate influence on the black grouse population dynamics in Europe | Modelisation de l'influence du climat sur les fluctuations de population du tetra lyre Tetrao tetrix en Europe
2000
Loneux, M. (Institut de Zoologie, Liege (Belgium). Musee de Zoologie)
The Black grouse is adapted to rough climate and to cold and snowy winters. Such climatic conditions seem to fail in Central and West Europe. The climate is recognized as the principal extrinsic factor acting on population fluctuation, and a first study has shown high significative results about climate influence on black grouse population dynamics in the Hautes-Fagnes (B). Therefore we have extended the same modelling approach to five other European Black Grouse populations followed for twenty or thirty years: Sallandse Heuvelrug (ML), Lueneburger Heide (D), Lange Rhoen (D), Satzung/Erzgebirge (D, at the Czech boundary) and the North Pennines (UK). Our analysis is a Poisson modelling by steprise multiple regression of yearly local meteorological variables to the yearly census of black cocks. The originalities of our work come from the use of continuous long time series of data set, the use of local climatological data recorded in the study area or in its close vicinity, and the use of specific time periods related to the life cycle of the birds. Our significative results confirm the negative effect of mild winter, the negative effect of rainfall during brooding and hatching time, and the positive effect of high temperature during hatching time for the four populations in ®lowland¯ of Europe : in Belgium, The Netherlands, North Germany and Central Germany (Rhoen). The two other populations (Erzgebirge and North Pennines) present other caracteristics. To conclude, the climatic factors explain very well the observed fluctuations for the last twenty or thirty years, and the general decline of Black Grouse, observed even in protected areas, could be partly influenced by the new climatic trends. The species is suffering from the global climate change in addition to attacks on its habitat and tranquility. Its medium term survival in ®lowland¯ areas depends on the improvement of its habitat quality and carrying capacity, under all points of vue.
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