China's rice economy and policy: supply, demand and trade in the 21st century.
2002
Huang, J. | Rozelle, S. | Hu, R. | Li, N.
Rice is the most important food crop in China. China's rice is also the largest component and most dynamic part of the world wide rice economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine trends in China's rice economy and policies governing the agricultural sector ans predict China's future involvement in world rice markets. The study shows that, while the rice sector has been heavily penalized by price and marketing policies as well as macroeconomic policies such as the overvaluation of domestic currency, rice productivity has gained substantially from productivity-enhancing investment such as agricultural research and irrigation. Projections show that, under the most plausible expected growth rates in the important factors, China's grain imports will rise over the projection period. But, rice trends are in stark contrast to those of feed grains. Increasing maize imports arise mainly from the accelerating demand for meat and feed grains. The expected increasing rice exports will offset part of the increase in feed grain imports. The most important difference among the projections for rice supply, demand, and trade is in the sensitivity of predictions to the simulation assumptions. Different rates of agricultural investment create some of the largest differences in production and trade. Most major demand factors - urbanization, income growth, and market liberalization - are pushing China's comsumers to reduce rice demand over the next 20 years. With a significant change in agricultural policy in response to China's entry into the World Trade Organization, supply will not only be able to keep up with demand, but also rice exports will be enlarged. China is expected to become a major player in the world japonica rice market in the coming decades.
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Este registro bibliográfico ha sido proporcionado por International Rice Research Institute