Evaluation of walnut production technology for Kohistan [Pakistan]
2007
Qazi, M.I. (Agriculture Research Inst., Peshawar (Pakistan)) | Khan, M. (Agriculture Research Inst., Peshawar (Pakistan)) | Shah, R. (Agriculture Research Station, Mansehra (Pakistan)) | Jan, I.
The present study was an analysis of per tree estimation of Walnut fruit over coming 40 years. These studies were performed in 2002, which revealed that the annual research benefit would be a constant level of Rs.286.20 million from an area of 68 hectares of Walnut in Kohistan districts from 29 to 40 year age of the walnut plant. The project has 80% chances of success and the discount rate is 12% to account for diminishing rate of rupee. The present value of benefits (PVB) is Rs.42.05 million at 12% discount rate. The present value of cost (PVC) is Rs.14.50 million and Rs.13.22 million at 12% and 15% discount rate respectively. The break-even point can be arrived at if the product is made available for more than 15 years. The discount rate of 12% goes in favour of the fact that it should be funded publicly. While the sensitivity analyses reveals that it can be come profitable at 15% discount rate by bringing different changes in the project, w hich are decreasing the mortality rate of- plant decrease in the research and non research costs and increase in the number of plants per year.
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