Agrarian Structural Change in the Swiss Mountain Region: An agent-based, spatially explicit agricultural-structure and land-use model for two regions in the Canton of Grisons | Changement structurel agricole en region de montagne: Modelisation de la structure agricole et de l'utilisation des terres par les agents pour deux regions du Canton des Grisons de maniere spatialement explicite
2006
Lauber, S., Forschungsanstalt Agroscope Reckenholz-Taenikon ART, Ettenhausen (Switzerland)
The cultural landscape in the Swiss mountain area is an important externality of agricultural production. Agrarian structural change directly affects the landscape via changing land-use intensities. Whilst the contribution of mountain farms to the constitutional targets of decentralised settlement and food provision is becoming smaller and smaller, the preservation of natural resources and the cultural landscape is acquiring increasing importance. This thesis aims to identify possible patterns of development in mountain agriculture for several scenarios in two regions of Mittelbünden (eastern Switzerland), and to simulate the impacts on land use in a spatially explicit manner. It is part of the SULAPS (Sustainable Landscape Production Systems) project carried out within the «Landscapes and Habitats of the Alps” Swiss National Research Programme NRP 48, and financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation. For simulation, 63 farms from seven communities in the Belfort and Surses districts and their 8,374 cultivated plots are represented in individually parameterised optimisation models which are linked via a leasehold market module to an empirical, agent-based land-use and agricultural-structure model. The iterative program execution of the plot transfers may change the initial situation of farms, resulting in their possible expansion before it is their turn to decide whether or not to remain wholly or partially in agriculture. [...]The model approach fulfilled our expectations in terms of its ability to simulate land use in a spatially explicit manner. Thanks to its iterative programming, it also permits a realistic reproduction of the leasehold market. This thesis introduces a first application of the SULAPS agricultural-structure and land-use model, which will in future be used for other tasks.
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