Marketing, Export and Forecasting of International Pistachio Market.
2008
Sedaqat, Reza | Nuri, Kiyumars | Abareqi, Gholam Reza | Mirza`ie, Sa`id
Supply, demand and price forecasting can provide an appropriate context for long run programming of the produces production and exports. The higher importance is given to this matter in case of the produces with long project life and high investment costs, especially for exporting commodities. Pistachio is the main agricultural produce that Iran is competing with some other producing nations very closely in its production and exports. With regards to the importance of longrun programming for Pistachio and to avoid from any shortrun decision, In this research the value of some concerned variables has been estimated and finally world price, supply and demand forecasted for Pistachio from 2006 till 2015.Data on concerned variables during 1986-2004 were collected by visiting governmental organization and institutions like management and programming organization , agricultural and commercial data sources and also rejistered data in FAOSAT. Regression, Algebraic average, forecasting with supply and demand factors and ARIMA methods were employed to analyze the data collected. Results revealed that the average world exports demand will be promoted by 12.5 percent from the first period to the second period.Average world supply also will be increased by 36.7 percent at the same period.Domestic consumption in producing countries will be also increased by 74.4 percent from the first to the second time period.Average world market price will be enhanced with the growth rate of 52.5 percent in the similar time period. Lastly, it is indicated that any new investment in producing nations can be economical if yield dosen't decrease / remain stable and production costs increase with the rate of less than 52.5 percent from the first period to the second one.
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