Monitoring and Forecasting of Pearl Millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) Yield in Two Areas of Traditional Rain-fed Agriculture in Western Sudan
2007
mustafa, M.A. (Hashim, Y.M.), University of Khartoum, Shambat (Sudan). Desertification and Desert Cultivation Studies Institute | Ministry of Huminatarian Affairs, Khartoum (Sudan). Humanitarian Aid Commission
Abstract: A study was conducted to test the validity of an FAO method for monitoring and forecasting pearl millet yield in two traditional rain¬fed areas in western Sudan; namely, AI-Obeid and AI-Fashir. The periods of crop development were delineated from the graphs of mean normal (30 years) rainfall (Pn) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) versus LO-day mterval (dekad) during the growing season. Annual water satisfaction indices (SI) were estimated for 10 years from annual water balance for the period 1987-1996. This index indicates the extent to which the water requirement of the crop was satisfied in a cumulative way. Highly significant cubic relationships between Pn or PET and seasonal dekads were obtained for both areas. For AI-Obeid, Pn for three dekads were equal to 0.5 PET and for the remaining dekads they were below 0.5 PET. while for AI-Fashir Pn was below 0.5 PET for all dekads. Thus. according to the FAO classification system. the two areas have no growing seasons. SlI1ce this conclusion contradicts with acctual pract ice, a modification of the system is proposed. According to the modified system. there is a growing season but it is still very dry in both areas. Trendline equations for the distribution of Pn and PET were devcloped for the two areas. An c\\lmplc for the calculation of SI for millet (dukhn) gr\}\\\\n in 1987 in the two areas \\Vas presented and analyzed. The corelation between millet yield and seasonal rainfall was not significant in AI-Obeid area, but it was highly signiticant (r2
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