A study on evaluation and projection of sector-based approaches as frameworks after 2013
2010
Matsuhashi, R., Tokyo Univ. (Japan) | Yoshida, Y.
Since the fourth assessment report of IPCC was published in 2007, the worldwide concern on climate change has been growing unprecedentedly. While the first commitment period of Kyoto Protocol already started from 2008, international negotiation has begun on a framework in the next period. Under these circumstances, sector-based approaches are attracting attention, since it is not only promising to economically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also expected to be accepted by developing countries. In sector-based approaches, each nation set numerical targets as greenhouse gas intensities in individual sectors including industry, residence or transportation, so that it commits to reduce these intensities to realize the targets. In this paper, we first applied the cross-impact method to take experts' judgments consistently in order to project a framework after 2012. The computed results identified the several frameworks with high probabilities. Then we applied analytic hierarchy process to take experts' judgments consistently in order to evaluate the identified frameworks as candidates after 2012. In the evaluation using analytic hierarchy process, we took account of reduction of greenhouse gases, economic impact, possibility of making consensus, and initiative in global negotiation. The evaluated result indicated that the framework has the highest score, in which industrialized and developing countries adopt national numerical target and partial sector-based approaches, respectively. We concluded that sector-based approaches are effective especially for developing countries.
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