Production and acreage response of wheat and cotton in NWFP, Pakistan
2009
Niamatullah, M. (Gomal Univ., D.I. Khan (Pakistan)) | Khair-uz-Zaman (Gomal Univ., D.I. Khan (Pakistan))
The present study is aimed at determining the influence of market price (price factor), rainfall and irrigation (non-price factors) on wheat and cotton production and acreage by employing Nerlovian Adjustment Model in time series data from 1981-82 to 2006-07 for rainfed areas and from 1991-92 to 2007-08 for irrigated areas in NWFP, Pakistan. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) techniques of estimation, revealed positive and significant relationship (P less than 0.05) between wheat production and rainfall. In four single equation Nerlovian Adjustment Model, the short run and long run elasticities in terms of wheat production of market price were 0.0139 and 0.0274 and of rainfall as 0.1296 and 0.2557, respectively, wheat acreage of market price worked out were -0.0166 and -0.0784 and of rainfall as 0.0317 and 0.1498, respectively. In cotton production of market price as 0.0118 and 0.0470 and of rainfall as -0.3488 and -1.3907, respectively and in c otton acreage of market prices as -0.0295 and -0.1689 and of rainfed area as -0.2807 and -1.6078, while for irrigated area, short and long run elasticities have been worked as 18.6 and 29.1, respectively. Merely market price determination is not sufficient, but more essentially it is concluded that adequate and timely rainfall and irrigation, which have been proved vital inputs in achieving wheat and cotton production and acreage targets in NWFP.
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