Adoption and Diffusion indices developed for analysis of Data for Chilalo Agricultural development unit (CADU).

Adoption is viewed as a variable representing behavioral changes that farmers undergo in accepting new ideas and innovations in Agriculture. Farmers can exhibit differential behaviors towards new innovation depending upon an number of factors one of which is the efficiency with which the new ideas or innovations are formulated and disseminated to the farmers. The Dissemination of agricultural information which in turn is a function of a number of factors including the predisposition of the farmer with respect to (1) the new ideas or innovation (2) the agencies which promote the practices and (3) their own goals and aspirations is known as diffusion. It is very important to understand these processes of adoption and diffusion and be able to predict the behavior of farmers in designing and implementing Agricultural Development Programmes. This paper presents an attempt made along this line in the context of the Chilalo Agricultural Development Unit. The methods in which adoption and diffusion indices, derived from the components of the project and the strategies followed at CADU, were developed are discussed in detail. The study was intended to seek answers to three key questions pertaining to the performance of the Chilalo Agricultural Development Unit (CADU). The questions were: (1) to what extent were the package of innovations designed to promote (stimulate) rural development in the project area and elsewhere in Ethiopia progressing toward the intended goals; (2) what changes had been brought about among participating peasants in t heir adoption behavior; and (3) what variables were closely associated with the adoption of improved agricultural inputs. As has been extensively described in several documents and analytical works, the fundamental aim of CADU was to verify the performance of integrated agricultural development strategy popularly known as the package approach. It was stipulated that this would lay the foundations for expanded regional agricultural development programmes in areas of great potential for rural change. The phiol-sophical basis which stemmed from the experiences of India and Pakistan was that given the resource endowment and technological backwardness of countries like Ethiopia, a comprehensive and integrated strategy against the many forces t hat hinder development possibilities would offer the greatest chance of success in combating rural poverty. Accordingly, a package of activities was designed and launched in "Chilalo in 1967 which included research, agricultural extension, provision of infrastructure and other related factors of development. By 1972, the project had advanced to considerably that it began to show some effects which Became central issues for public debate both at professional and political forums. These were arguments for and against the project in view of some basic social and political implications derived from the experiences observed in the project area. In view of this, the writer was prompted to study the project and attempt to ascertain the appropriateness of the programme and derive some clues that might be useful in a wide range of decision making situations affecting the development of peasant agriculture. The paper is intended to provoke discussion on methods of evaluative research particularly geared to the assessment of development programmes. A very important step in this regard is the identification of indicators which would permit the measurement and analysis of changes sought by projects like CADU. This paper presents the way dependent and independent variables were conceptualized and quantified in light of the requirements of the statistical analysis employed in testing the hypotheses of the study. The hypotheses were: (1) there is no relationship between selected characteristics of farmers and diffusion of innovations (2) there is a positive relationship between diffusion of innovation and the adoption behavior of farmers and (3) there is no relationship between selected characteristics of farmers and their adoption behavior. The author plans to present the findings and conclusion of the study in another paper which will follow this.