An econometric analysis of paper production and wastepaper in Japan.
1993
Matsushita K.
In this paper, several basic equations on the production of paper and paperboard for the basis of future construction of the econometric model are calculated. Annual time-series data during the period 1960-1990 are used in this analysis. The main results and further research topics are as follows: 1. the domestic demand is approximately explained by GNP. However, the demand elasticity for GNP is changeable. Recently, this rate is over 1. The factors that determine this elasticity have to be clarified in future analysis. 2. The share of export and import of paper, paperboard and wastepaper is less than 5%, respectively. This rate is less than those of the other developed countries, and the paper market in Japan seems to be almost in the condition of self-sufficiency. However, as of the log for pulp, the imported one has been increasing, recently it is over the domestic one. It is important how to include a foreign sector in econometric model. 3. The materials input to paper and paperboard production is approximately explained by the quantity of production. However, in the case of paper, the consumption of wastepaper is explained by the paper production and the collection-rate. In case of paperboard, the substitutional relationship is observed between the domestic pulp and wastepaper. In the future, although the use-rate in paper production is expected to rise, such substitution may be observed. 4. the quantity of wastepaper collection has been increased in right proportion to the increase of paper supply. The collection-rate has been increased as trend, but recently this rate is almost constant, being around 50%. It is important to investigate the factors that determine this rate.
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