The impact of rising food prices on disparate livelihoods groups in Kenya

The dramatic increase in food prices globally has created challenges for achieving the Millennium Development Goals of reducing poverty and hunger especially in the Kenyan context given a number of factors aggravating the food crisis. This study provides a situation analysis and prognosis of markets and prices in Kenya and the wider region. It discusses characteristics of different livelihoods that predispose them to the impacts of rising food prices on food security and provides recommendations and policy implications to deal with the food crisis. <br /><br />The Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) uses a livelihood framework for food security analysis. After a detailed analysis of this methodology, the study provides an overview on the food production with a particular emphasis on maize production. Moreover, the study highlights the market price trends and trade prospects in Kenya and region with an analysis of maize surplus and deficit markets and trends in cereal availability and prices. The characteristics of livelihood zones are then analysed with an emphasis on their respective food security status. <br /><br />This study highlights that the impact of the sustained rise in food and non-food prices is expected to increase food insecurity among the most vulnerable livelihood groups especially the urban, rural poor with insufficient land for subsistence, people living with HIV and AIDS and pastoral and marginal agricultural households. It foresees the reduction in maize output and increased prices in 2008. The reasons for this are poor weather conditions, reduced land for production due to post-election violence, inefficient agricultural practices and increased transportation and production costs. These are likely to increase expensive imports resulting in an overall inflationary trend. Other factors increasing the impacts of rising prices are disruption in input and output markets, HIV and AIDS, overwhelming dependence on maize, high prices of production inputs, stagnant incomes and above market rate producer prices. <br /><br />The key implications of rising maize prices is estimated to be a sharp increase in population living below the food poverty line, changes in frequency and composition of meals, rise in malnutrition, reduction in informal wage rate, rise in school drop outs, distress livestock sales, increased conflicts and finally an acute livelihood crisis. <br /><br />Suggestions to reduce the impacts of the crisis in the long run are that the government needs to be increasingly committed to implementing the millennium development goals intended to reduce the number of food insecure population. In the short to medium run, it is imperative that modalities to improve resource allocation to marginal areas are devised and create incentives for employment creation in urban areas.