Where are we in the Doha round?

This paper provides an overview of the Doha Round process, noting that it revolves around the liberalisation of agriculture, as the 'last frontier for trade liberalisation' and the arena where most gains stand to be made. However, it cautions that whom these changes will benefit is a matter of conjecture. It makes the points that:in agriculture, there is now confidence that export subsidies—one of the three pillars of the negotiations in this sector—will be phased outin respect of the second pillar—domestic support—the situation is still unclear as to whether the overall effect of the measures agreed will actually lead to a reduction in current levels of support, and whether the support that remains is significantly less trade distorting than current measuresin respect of the third pillar—market access— negotiations are in the deepest ruton development, things are at a standstill. There is substantial divergence of opinion on what measures are good for development, and the different categories of developing countries have greatly divergent ambitionsfor many countries that are unlikely to do well under any of the probable scenarios for the Doha round, the answer may lay in “aid for trade”—compensation through assistance in other areas for the concessions they make in the field of tradeThe paper concludes that:it is likely that the EU, the U.S., EFTA, Japan, Korea and others will not yield in their protectionist attitudes.This would be a disaster for the developing countries, who would find themselves locked into a massively unfair system of commodity exchange, and for the developed countries that will need to make reforms if they are to compete with China and Indiagenuine concessions by the U.S. or the EU at the Hong Kong Ministerial Meeting in December 2005, or an agreement between them to put a new package on the table, could provide a stimulus to negotiations