Stochastic Simulation Model of Fire Occurrence in the Republic of Korea
2011
Lee, B.D., Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Lee, Y.H., Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA | Lee, M.B., Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Albers, Heidi J., Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
In this study, we develop a fire stochastic simulation model by season based on the historical fire data in Korea. The model is utilized to generate sequences of fire events that are consistent with Korean fire history. We employ a three-stage approach. First, a random draw from a Bernoulli distribution is used to determine if any fire occurs for each day of a simulated fire season. Second, if a fire does occur, a random draw from a geometric multiplicity distribution determines their number. Last, ignition times for each fire are randomly drawn from a Poisson distribution. This specific distributional forms are chosen after analysis of Korean historical fire data. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the primary parameters of the stochastic models. Fire sequences generated with the model appear to follow historical patterns with respect to diurnal distribution and total number of fires per year. We expect that the results of this study will assist a fire manager for planning fire suppression policies and suppression resource allocations.
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