Consecuencia de la inestabilidad del precio mundial de las materias primas sobre el sector agrícola español: una aplicación al sector cárnico

The objective of this thesis is to analyze raw- material price instability consequences on two of the Spanish agricultural sectors, the poultry sector and the pork sector. To do this, three pricing systems were defined. The first is the raw material system, consisting of corn prices in the United States, Argentina and Spain. This system fits into the theory of spatial analysis of price transmission, measuring the impact of international price fluctuation on the domestic market. The other two pricing systems are formed base on the price of corn; the price paid for the farmer by the retailer, and the price paid by the consumer for the retailer. Based on these systems, the process of price transmission is analyzed along the commercial chain of poultry and pork. To achieve the objectives set, analyzes were carried out using a combination of various techniques : Co- integration analysis , Analysis of asymmetric processes by using the error correction models with smooth transition thresholds ( STVECM ) , and finally, a calculation of the nonlinear impulse response functions . The results indicate that long- term prices are tightly integrated spatially and vertically. However, in most cases, the elasticity of long-term transmission value is inferior to one, indicating the existence of market power. In particular, it is noted that the price transmission elasticity of corn to the price received by the producer, is 0.4 and 0.3 in the sectors of poultry and pork, respectively. Price adjustments processes towards the equilibrium point are asymmetric depending on a parameter threshold and a variable transition. In terms of the spatial relationships of prices, the price of corn in the American market could be considered as the most representative of the international market. The responses of corn prices in the Spanish market prior to the shocks in the international market are asymmetric both in magnitude and sign. In most cases negative asymmetries were obtained, indicating that the price of Spanish corn reacts with greater magnitudes before price declines and elevation. Finally, regarding price transmission along the marketing chain, it can be concluded that in the case of poultry and pork sectors, the different links in the value chain are interrelated. In both sectors, distributors and retailers have a leading position over that of the producer holds, especially in the poultry sector.