South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 6 : Brittle recovery

World Bank

South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 6 : Brittle recovery

2014

World Bank

This report covers economic developments, prospects, and policies in six South Eastern European countries (SEE6): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. South East Europe (SEE6)'s economy recovered from the 2012 recession, growing by 2.2 percent on average in 2013. Each of the SEE6 countries marked positive growth rates in 2013, with growth at or exceeding 3 percent in Kosovo, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro. External demand for SEE6 exports, especially by the European Union (EU), was the key driver of the recovery. On the production side, SEE6 drivers of growth were mixed, but in all countries a good agricultural year supported economic activity. An export-led recovery combined with depressed domestic demand resulted in a significant narrowing of current account imbalances in all SEE6 countries. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment financed most of the current account deficits in SEE6. Overall, SEE6 countries are having limited success in translating the economic recovery into job creation. SEE6 countries reduced their fiscal deficits to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2013 from 4.3 percent of GDP in 2012. The pace of fiscal adjustment and still nascent economic growth were insufficient to reverse public debt dynamics in SEE6. In a low-inflation environment, SEE6 central banks moderately loosened monetary policy. The financial sector remained broadly stable, albeit fragile, in the course of 2013. The SEE region is projected to grow at 1.9 percent in 2014 and 2.6 percent in 2015 on the back of external demand. The positive growth since mid-2013 and the still accommodative monetary conditions of the Euro Area are likely to continue help SEE6 exports to grow, despite notable risks related to the outlook for the Euro Area (related to the slow reform implementation and prolonged period of low inflation or risk of deflation).

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accounting agriculture balance sheets banking systems consumers debt deflation developing countries domestic consumption economic conditions economic development economic growth economic policies entrepreneurship equipment exchange rate expenditure exports external debt financial market free trade gold growth rate household income housing human capital import imports income income distribution inflation instrument interest rates international bank international trade liquidity living standards maturity pension pensions poverty reduction productivity profitability public debt remittances rule of law stocks trade barriers transport unemployment wages

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Washington, DC

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Illiquidity; Fiscal balances; Wealth; Return on assets; Financial crisis; Governance standards; Disinflation; European central bank; Central banks; Regional banks; Current account deficit; Currency board; Labor costs; Debts; Emerging economies; External assets; Reserve assets; Bank for international settlements; Economic developments; Public spending; Currency boards; Trade balance; Public policy; Tax revenues; Adverse impact; Arrears; Banking system; Domestic demand growth; Income levels; Regional inflation; Current account deficits; Gold prices; Capital adequacy ratios; Credit rating; Financial crises; High-income countries; Currency; Labor market; Macroeconomic policy; Exchange rates; National banks; Financial sector; Treasury; Structural rigidities; Emerging markets; Exporters; Total revenue; Lenders; Banking sector; Public sector debt; Bank recapitalization; Economic expansion; Portfolio; Economic activity; Trade deficits; Portfolio investment; Credit growth; Central bank; Implicit guarantees; Output gaps; Treasury yields; Federal reserve; Npl; Emerging market; Local currency; Inflations; Income differential; Debt ratings; Regulatory forbearance; Return; Tax collections; Capital flows; Revenue sources; Deposits; Economic performance; Government guarantees; Tax increase; Creditor; Supervisory authorities; Fiscal deficit; Capital requirements; Liquidity ratio; Income taxes; Foreign capital; Export growth; Competitiveness; Real gdp; Domestic demand; Capital adequacy; Subsidiaries; Peg; Host countries; Bank of greece; Spare capacity; Inflation environment; Inflation rates; Current account imbalances; Unemployment rate; Credit ratings; Agricultural output; Rates of return; Debt levels; Consolidation; Emerging market economies; Basis points; Tax hike; Local business; Domestic credit; Broad money; Private consumption; Tax rates; Income inequality; Consumer confidence; Trade flows; Currency markets; Reserve requirement; Stock markets; Legal systems; Productivity growth; Income growth; Sovereign debt; Monetary policy; Current account balance; Current account; Price increases; Debt crises; Monetary conditions; Trade deficit; Deposit; Cds; Gdp per capita; Flexible exchange rates; Domestic inflation; Global economy; Institutional investors; Purchasing power; Market conditions; Financial markets; Foreign bank; Money supply; Credit default; Global integration; Domestic bond markets; Downward pressure; Consumer purchasing; Risk aversion; Commodity prices; Investor confidence; Food price; Unemployment rates; Macroeconomic environment; Loan; Tax policy; Non-performing loans; Public expenditures; Bank profitability; Bill; Domestic bond; Price inflation; Financial flows; Labor markets; Foreign direct investment; Growth rates; Fiscal deficits; Recession; Growth potential; Capital expenditures; Reserve; Subsidiary; Ministries of finance; Foreign banks; Capital flow; Tax; Capacity constraints; Swaps; Housing prices; Reserve requirements; Currency mismatch; External demand; International financial markets; Asset quality; Nominal income

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South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 6 : Brittle recovery

2014

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