EU11 Regular Economic Report, Issue #29, July 2014 : Strengthening Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe

World Bank

EU11 Regular Economic Report, Issue #29, July 2014 : Strengthening Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe

2014

World Bank

Economic growth is expected to almost double in EU111 in 2014, and continues to strengthen in 2015. Overall EU11 GDP growth is forecast to strengthen from 1.4 percent in 2013 to 2.6 percent in 2014. The initial reliance on net export growth, with rising demand from the rest of the EU, is gradually giving way to more balanced growth as domestic demand picks-up, notably in Romania, Slovakia and Poland. Fiscal consolidation will continue in 2014 and 2015, but at a more gradual pace than in the previous years. The overall EU11 fiscal deficit is expected to drop to 2.9 percent of GDP in 2014 and to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2015. However, there is a need for larger adjustments in Croatia and Slovenia to achieve sustainable deficit and debt levels. Economic growth forecasts in the EU11 are subject to multiple risks, mainly on the downside, as the global financial situation remains fragile. While labor market conditions have started to improve, the pace of job creation and reduction in unemployment rates are likely to be gradual.

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agriculture bankruptcy debt deflation devaluation developing countries domestic markets economic conditions economic growth exchange rate exports financial institutions gross domestic product growth rate housing human capital income income tax indebtedness inflation interest rates international bank inventories legal frameworks liquidity monetary policies pension pensions productivity public debt public investment stocks taxation unemployment value added wages

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Washington, DC

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Wealth; Trade balances; Eib; Regulatory frameworks; Central banks; European central bank; Demand for credit; Book-entry; Full employment; Long-term interest; Current account deficit; Banking sectors; Labor costs; Emerging economies; Credit default swap; Bank for international settlements; Economic developments; Judicial system; Rates of inflation; Asset management; Floating exchange rates; Gdp; Net exports; Banking system; Public sector borrowing; Bond; Bank exposure; Non-performing loan; Credit risks; Debt burdens; Current account deficits; Risk factor; Price stability; Gross domestic product growth; Portfolios; Foreign currency; Consumer price index; Credit rating; Labor market; Currency; Household saving; Exchange rates; Financial sector; Real estate loans; Total factor productivity; Developing country equity; International financial statistics; Capital stock; Emerging markets; Household incomes; Expenditures; Transmission of monetary policy; Banking sector; Sovereign bonds; Supply of credit; Bank recapitalization; Economic expansion; Portfolio; Treasuries; Inflation rate; Securities markets; Portfolio investment; Credit growth; Central bank; Interest rate; Financial sustainability; Asset-backed securities; Federal reserve; Npl; Emerging market; Long-term interest rates; Equity investment; Return; Trading; Capital flows; International settlements; Tax rate; Deposits; Equity markets; Balance sheet; Macroeconomic policies; Fiscal deficit; Securities; Public finances; Export growth; Foreign capital; Price declines; Competitiveness; Real gdp; Regulatory framework; Bank balance sheets; Subsidiaries; Inflation rates; Transparency; Unemployment rate; Credit ratings; International finance; Debt levels; Consolidation; Emerging market economies; Basis points; Private capital; Corporate bonds; Withdrawal; Local markets; Government revenues; Government bonds; Pension reform; Sovereign ratings; Investment projects; Real interest; Middle income countries; Interest payments; Income growth; Equity capital; Sovereign debt; Monetary policy; Developing country; Sovereign rating; Debt crises; Turnover; Capital flight; International banking; Forecasts; Deposit; Fiscal policy; Cds; Global financial stability; Portfolio investments; Investment activity; Bank linkages; Gdp per capita; Institutional investors; Consumption taxes; Purchasing power; Income inequalities; Market conditions; Financial markets; Bank lending; Bank financing; Foreign bank; Credit default; Consumption expenditure; Federal reserve bank; Commodity price; Risk aversion; Commodity prices; Debt crisis; Pension system; Economic outlook; Unemployment rates; Solvency; Transaction; Loan; External funding; Non-performing loans; Durable; Recapitalization; Financial sector indicators; Nonperforming loans; Financial flows; Consumer loans; Labor markets; Foreign direct investment; Fiscal deficits; Underlying assets; Recession; Capital expenditures; Subsidiary; Ministries of finance; Bond swap; Host country; Foreign banks; Per capita income; Monetary fund; Macroeconomic stabilization; Real sector; Capital flow; Real interest rates; Capital inflows; Investment rates; International financial markets; Capital markets; Asset quality; Current account surpluses; Macroeconomic performance

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EU11 Regular Economic Report, Issue #29, July 2014 : Strengthening Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe

2014

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