Use of econometric model for developing an outlook for livestock sector in Latvia
2017
Nipers, A., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia) | Pilvere, I., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia) | Zeverte-Rivza, S., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia) | Krievina, A., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Priekuli, Priekuli parish, Priekuli Municipality (Latvia). Inst. of Agricultural Resources and Economics
In 2015 in Latvia, livestock products accounted for 36.6 % of the total final value of agricultural production, including meat production – 15.5 % and egg production – 3.4 %. Beef and pork production stabilised in the last decade, mutton and goat meat production has tended to increase since 2010, while poultry and egg production has shown an increasing trend since 1999 in Latvia in the period 1995-2015. There are all preconditions for the development of these industries in Latvia, which allow expecting growth in the industries. It is determined by globalisation processes: the increasing world population and growing demand for food, rising incomes and change in eating habits. Livestock output is determined, to a great extent, by the number of agricultural animals kept. For this reason, it is important to project the population of agricultural animals for the period until 2050 in order to assess the development of the livestock industries. This paper reflects the projections elaborated by an econometric, recursive, dynamic, multi-period scenario model developed by the authors of this paper in 2016. The model has been developed according to the specifics of every agricultural industry and takes into account the trends in the industries. The present research on the livestock sector exploited only a part of the model functions – calculations were performed for cattle, pigs, sheep, goats and poultry. The results allowed to conclude that the processes in livestock industries were determined by diverse drivers, e.g. increase in productivity, expansion of large livestock farms, export opportunities and the market situation.
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