Statistical downscaling of future climate for Agusan del Norte, Philippines
2016
Burdeos, K.B. | Lansigan, F.P.
All climate models have projected that climate will change significantly in the future up to the turn of 21st century. However, general circulation models (GCMs) used to stimulate global future climate have limited applications for local vulnerability assessments, impact studies, and risk analyses. Thus, statistical downscaling is one technique used for deriving local-scale surface weather from global or regional scale atmospheric predictor variables. In this study, the 30-year records of daily precipitation data from 1981 to 2010 in Agusan del Norte, Philippines were considered to analyze the existing climatic condition of the province. Future climates centered on 2020 (2006-2095) were generated using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) under A1B climate scenario. Based on the analyses of annual 24-hour and 48-hour maximum precipitation, climatic conditions for present and future scenarios were analyzed. Precipitations with 24-hour duration are expected to increase by about 2-18%, 6-19% and 15-51% for the period centered on 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively. Meanwhile, rainfall with 48-hour duration is projected to increase by about 7-17%, 7-18%, and 16-51% for the period 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively. Downscaled data for future climate can be used for frequency analysis of floods and droughts, and climate risk assessments.
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