Analysis and prediction of prices and price partyes of corn and wheat in Serbia
2016
Mutavdžić, Beba (Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia)) | Novković, Nebojša (Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia)) | Vukelić, Nataša (Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia)) | Radojević, Veljko (Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia))
The aim of this research paper is to analyze the changes and to forecast the real and relative (parity) prices. The analysis of the time series (1994-2014) has been done, and ARIMA models were used for the forecast (2015-20). In analyzed period average (deflated) price of corn was 108 euro/ton, while average price of wheat was 118 euro/ton. Average price parity in observed period was 0.93. In predicted period corn prices will be from 99 to 122 euro/ton, wheat prices from 114 to 125 euro/ton, while parity price from 0.83 to 0.89.
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