Climate change and its probable impact on mango production and cultivation

Climate change is becoming an observed reality, very likely due to the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration. Since few decades, several research teams around the world carry out a huge work to model the future climatic change during the 21 tht century, based on several scenarios of greenhouse gas emission. We have to expect rise in average temperatures, in atmospheric C02 concentration, in soil salinity in sorne areas, and lower and more irregular rainfall. The climate variability and the frequency of extreme events (scorching beat, heavy rainfall, drought, hurricane) are also expected to rise. Climate change is therefore a great concem for agriculture. The consequences of these changes are expected to be more severe in the tropics and subtropics. Mango is one of the most widely cultivated and popular fruits in these regions for its economie and nutritional values. lt is the fifth most cultivated fruit in the world. It is consequently justified to wonder about the impact of climate change on the mango tree and about the consequences on mango production and cultivation. The lack of crop model for mango prevents the prediction of impacts of climate change on the mango tree. They are then assessed on the basis of our current knowledge on the effect of climatic variables on mango tree development and production. In this paper, we describe the effect of clirnatic variables on processes of agronomical importance for the mango tree: photosynthesis, vegetative and reproductive development, fruit quality. We tben review the climate changes predicted for the main areas of mango production and draw the possible consequences for mango cultivation. Finally, we propose sorne research ways to adapt mango cultivation to climate change in the coming decades, such as cultivar and rootstock selection, and improvement of cultural practices. The interest to develop a mango crop model is discussed. (Résumé d'auteur)