Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 specific reproduction number in SAARC countries: A 60-days Data-driven analysis
2020
Sofi Mahmud Parvez (Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Bangladesh) | RiazMahmud (Department of Mathematics, South Asian University, India) | M. R. I. Faruque (Space Science Centre (ANGKASA), Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia) | Mohammed Nizam Uddin (Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Bangladesh) | H. M. Shahadat Ali (Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Bangladesh) | A.N.M. Rezaul Karim (Department of Computer Science & Engineering, International Islamic University Chittagong, Bangladesh)
Novel coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) was acknowledged as a global pandemic by WHO, which was first observed at the end of December 2019 in Wuhan city, China, caused by extreme acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus2 (SARS-CoV-2). According to the Weekly operation Update on COVID-19 (November 13, 2020) of the World Health Organization, more than 53 million confirmed cases are reported, including 1.3 million deaths. Various precautionary measures have been taken worldwide to reduce its transmission, and extensive researches are going on. The purpose of this analysis was to determine the initial number of reproductions (Ro) of the coronavirus of SAARC countries named Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, the Maldives, and Sri-Lanka for the first 60 days as the growth is exponential in the early 60 days. The reproduction numbers of coronavirus for Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are 1.47, 3.86, 2.07, 1.43, 1.31, 3.22, 1.75, and 2.39 respectively. The basic reproduction number (R0) 3.86 for Bangladesh and 1.31 for Bhutan indicated that up to 60-days of the outbreak COVID-19, the epidemic was more severe in Bangladesh and less severe in Bhutan among all the SAARC countries. Our predictions can be helpful in planning alertness and taking the appropriate measures to monitor it.
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