Unemployment-Poverty Trade-Offs

Agénor, Pierre-Richard

Unemployment-Poverty Trade-Offs

2004

Agénor, Pierre-Richard

The author examines the potential trade-offs that may arise between poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction. He discusses various analytical arguments that may provide a rationale for their existence, and uses three alternative methodologies to assess their relevance: a vector autoregression framework (which is applied to Brazil and Chile), cross-country regressions, and simulations with a structural macro model linked to a household survey. Impulse response functions to output and wage shocks indicate no short-run tradeoff. between unemployment and poverty. By contrast, regression results, which control for a variety of determinants of poverty rates across countries, suggest that such a trade-off may indeed exist. Simulations with the structural model show that labor market reforms may induce both short- and long-run trade-offs between the composition of unemployment and the incidence of poverty among household groups.

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arbitrage capital formation developing countries economic development economic growth economists elasticity elasticity of demand equilibrium exchange rate extreme poverty growth rate imports income inflation informal sector innovation living standards mortality poverty poverty alleviation poverty reduction production technology productivity savings unemployment urban areas urban poor urban poverty workers young workers

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Poverty lines; Headcount poverty; Informal sectors; National poverty; Direct impact; Payroll taxes; Life expectancy; High; National poverty line; Minimum wage; Young people; Policy goals; Poverty rate; Increase poverty; International poverty line; Labor market; Dependent variable; Country regressions; Average growth rate; Macroeconomic conditions; Exchange rates; 0 hypothesis; Poverty gap; Primary school; Labor force; Output growth; Growth process; Long run; Growth context; Inflation rate; Autoregression; Discounted value; Significant effect; Real wages; Human development report; Central bank; Transition economies; Output per capita; Marginal product; Exercises; Significant impact; Growth literature; Welfare function; Unskilled labor; Real gdp; Technical assistance; Aggregate level; Unemployment rate; Saving rate; Human development; Head- count ratio; Functional form; Economic shocks; Vulnerable groups; Real income; Explanatory variables; Output gap; Productivity growth; International poverty lines; Working poor; Long term; Poverty rates; Constant returns to scale; Poverty levels; Externality; Poverty index; Market economy; Standard deviation; Urban households; Short term; Production function; Gdp per capita; Poverty line; Simulation techniques; Poor countries; Capital accumulation; Headcount index; Informal economy; Data sources; Marginal cost; Household survey; Unemployment rates; Micro data; Diminishing returns; Real exchange rate; Developing regions; Growth rates; Average growth; Positive externalities; Headcount ratio

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14028

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Unemployment-Poverty Trade-Offs

2004

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